Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 061636
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         JANUARY 6, 2017

The 2017 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near normal at this
time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison, Dolores and
San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that it is very early in the snow
accumulation season and conditions could change quite a bit before the runoff
begins.

December precipitation was much above average across western Colorado with
basin averaged values between 140 and 180 percent of average.  The large
December precipitation was enough to bring the seasonal precipitation totals
to near normal across western Colorado after an extremely dry October and
November.

January 1st snow water equivalent was near to above median in all basins
with values ranging between 95 and 120 percent of median.

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
near to below average for the basins in western Colorado.  The January 1st
forecasts range between 80 and 105 percent of average.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.



CBRFC/Alcorn




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