Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER TAUNTON MA
555 PM EDT WED JAN 17 2018

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /2/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE BLACK RIVER BASIN...THE ADIRONDACK REGION INCLUDING TUG
HILL...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MERRIMACK RIVER BASIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

THE NORTHEAST EXPERIENCED BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY.

THE EXTENDED ARCTIC OUTBREAK WHICH BEGAN ON DECEMBER 26TH GAVE WAY
TO A TEMPORARY BUT SIGNIFICANT WARMUP FROM JANUARY 9TH TO JANUARY
12TH. COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNED AFTER JANUARY 12TH.

AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM JANUARY 1ST TO JANUARY 15TH HAVE GENERALLY
RANGED FROM -3 TO -7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT AROUND -1 DEGREE
BELOW NORMAL IN THE CARIBOU AREA.

JANUARY 1 TO JANUARY 15TH 2018 AVERAGE PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE
RANGED +1.00 TO +3.00 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST. THE WETTER THAN NORMAL DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY
COURTESY OF TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS. A SNOWSTORM IMPACTED THE EASTERN
BASINS ON THE 4TH AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND A REDEVELOPING
COASTAL LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN AND SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE
12TH AND 13TH. IN ADDITION SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IMPACTED THE
BLACK RIVER BASIN AND TUG HILL REGION EARLIER IN THE MONTH.

THE GREATEST ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES FROM +2.00 TO
+3.00 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS WASHINGTON WALDO PENOBSCOT KNOX
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES IN EASTERN MAINE. IN MASSACHUSETTS +2.00 TO
+2.25 INCH DEPARTURES WERE REPORTED IN BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES. IN RHODE ISLAND +2.00 INCH DEPARTURES WERE NOTED IN KENT
AND PROVIDENCE COUNTIES. IN NEW YORK STATE +2.00 INCH DEPARTURES
WERE OBSERVED IN ONONDAGA AND LEWIS COUNTIES.

NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES WERE
FOUND ACROSS NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...LONG ISLAND AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION.

JANUARY 1ST TO 15TH 2018 SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...THANKS MOSTLY TO
THE INTENSE NOREASTER ON THE 4TH AND FREQUENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

A WEAK TO MODERATE LA NINA PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES. THIS IS TYPICALLY CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AN ACTIVE
PACIFIC JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. AND A PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OR NORTHEASTERN U.S.

LOOKING AT THE TELECONNECTION PATTERNS...THE PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN
(PNA) PHASE HAS GENERALLY REMAINED POSITIVE WITH RIDGING PREVALENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC OSCILLATION
PHASES ALSO HAVE BEEN POSITIVE. THE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
(EPO) HAS TURNED MORE NEUTRAL.

PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. HAS ALLOWED FOR
THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
MORE POSITIVE NAO/AO AND NEUTRAL EPO PHASES...THE COLDEST ARCTIC AIR
HAS NOW REMAINED TO THE NORTH IN CANADA...OR HAS BEEN DISPLACED.

WE EXPECT MORE CHANGES TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...AS THE
TELECONNECTION PATTERNS SHIFT. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE PNA IS FORECAST TO TURN TO A NEGATIVE PHASE AND THEN
PERHAPS NEUTRAL OR POSITIVE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF JANUARY. THE AO
IS FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY NEGATIVE WHILE THE NAO AND EPO PHASES
REMAIN NEAR NEUTRAL.

THIS WOULD FAVOR A PATTERN CHANGE WITH MORE FREQUENT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WEST AND RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST. THE ENSEMBLE DATA AND
CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM BOTH SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO FOR MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF JANUARY.

OVERALL WE ANTICIPATE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL
THE NEXT TWO WEEKS AS RIDGING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. HOWEVER WE ALSO ANTICIPATE SOME SHARP TEMPERATURE
FLUCTUATIONS TO OCCUR AS THE NORTHERN JET STREAM REMAINS NEARBY.

THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS SOMEWHAT MORE QUESTIONABLE DUE TO THE
TIMING AND PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN JET STREAM SYSTEMS BUT
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. AN ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK APPEARS PLAUSIBLE.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
JANUARY 22-23. IT APPEARS THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF
QPF ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY FALL AS
MOSTLY RAIN EXCEPT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BASINS.

ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE RAIN
AND/OR SNOW AROUND 26TH. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE
WITH MORE RAIN AND/OR SNOW AROUND JANUARY 30TH OR 31ST.
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE POTENTIAL SYSTEMS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME AND THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON QPF AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.

THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS FROM
JANUARY 22ND THROUGH JANUARY 30TH GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOWPACK HAD DECREASED DURING MID JANUARY DUE TO THE RAIN AND MELT
EVENT THAT HAD OCCURRED JANUARY 9-12TH. SOME MODEST REPLENISHMENT OF
THE SNOWPACK OCCURRED DUE TO PERSISTENT COLD TEMPERATURES FROM THE
13TH THROUGH THE 17TH AND COASTAL LOW EVENT ON THE 17TH.

...NEW YORK STATE...

SNOW COVERS THE GROUND ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE. SNOW DEPTHS
DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE DUE TO THE RECENT JANUARY THAW
FROM THE 9TH THROUGH THE 12TH.

VERY LIGHT SNOWCOVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA...LONG ISLAND AND THE NEARBY NORTHERN SUBURBS AS OF 17 JANUARY
2018. SNOW DEPTHS ARE GENERALLY TWO INCHES OR LESS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY 0.20 INCH OR LESS

HEADING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CATSKILL AND TACONIC
REGION OF NEW YORK STATE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO 9 INCHES.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 0.25 TO 0.90 INCH.
THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

EXAMINING THE LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION OF NEW YORK...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE
FROM 3 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...THEN INCREASE TO 8
TO 14 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LAKE PLACID
REPORTED A 14 INCH SNOW DEPTH ON 17 JANUARY 2018.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.30 TO 0.75 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY BUT INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT
APPROACHING NEAR NORMAL IN THE PLATTSBURGH AREA.

EXAMINING THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK
VALLEY...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM UTICA TO ROME
AND WESTMORELAND. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF THE ADIRONDACKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM AROUND 0.60 INCH UP TO 1.25 INCH
ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY BUT INCREASE TO 1 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

LOOKING AT THE FINGER LAKES REGION OF NEW YORK STATE....SNOW DEPTHS
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES
AND 10 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES. THE HIGHEST
SNOW DEPTHS WERE FOUND FROM GENEVA TO AUBURN AND MARION.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.20 INCHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND LOCALLY 1.50 UP TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN FINGER LAKES. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

HEADING ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING THE BUFFALO
AREA...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CREEKS. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 INCHES SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO
IN THE GLENWOOD AREA.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 1.2 INCHES EXCEPT LOCALLY UP
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO. THE
HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND ALONG CAZENOVIA CREEK AT
EBENEZER AND CATTARAUGUS CREEK AT GOWANDA. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL.

LOOKING NEAR LAKE ONTARIO INCLUDING THE BLACK RIVER BASIN AND
ADJACENT TUG HILL REGION...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES
FROM OSWEGO TO PULASKI...BOONVILLE AND THE WATERTOWN AREA. SNOW
DEPTHS INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 FEET DUE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE TUG
HILL REGION. THE HIGHEST SNOW DEPTH OF 28 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT
REDFIELD.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...EXCEPT
LOCALLY 5 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE TUG HILL REGION. THE HIGHER SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND FROM WATERTOWN TO STILLWATER RESERVOIR
NEAR BIG MOOSE. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL.

HEADING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK...SNOW
DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1.50 TO 2.50 INCHES.
THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS...SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES...BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2+ FEET ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND APPROACHING TUG HILL REGION.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 2.5 INCHES...EXCEPT 4 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS APPROACHING TUG HILL. THESE
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

SNOW COVER IS FOUND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

IN CONNECTICUT...SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM A TRACE TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH...EXCEPT
5 TO 10 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE GENERALLY 0.10 UP TO 0.60 INCH...EXCEPT
AROUND 1.00 INCH ACROSS LITCHFIELD COUNTY. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

IN RHODE ISLAND...SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTH.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO 0.20 INCH ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND 0.25 UP TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE BELOW NORMAL.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...

SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGED FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER DEPTHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WORCESTER HILLS. SNOW DEPTHS RANGED FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER DEPTHS UP TO ONE FOOT AT
PLAINFIELD.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGED FROM LESS THAN 0.10 INCH UP
TO 0.50 INCH ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...0.25 TO 0.90 INCH ACROSS
CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...AND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...VERMONT...

SNOW COVERS THE STATE OF VERMONT. SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM 2 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION. SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 5
TO 12 INCHES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE. LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS
ARE FOUND ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES...LOCALLY 2 TO
3+ INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW COVERS THE STATE OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 3 TO
6 INCHES ACROSS THE MERRIMACK VALLEY OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THEN
INCREASE TO 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE MONADNOCKS. SNOW DEPTHS
INCREASE TO 8 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER MERRIMACK VALLEY REGION
AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 0.3 TO 0.9 INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT INCREASE TO 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE MONADNOCKS.
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS INCREASE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER
MERRIMACK VALLEY AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THESE SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TO PERHAPS NEAR NORMAL.

...MAINE...

SNOW COVERS MOST OF THE STATE OF MAINE. SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST FROM BANGOR TO THE COAST. SNOW DEPTHS
INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. SNOW DEPTHS
INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN MAINE. ANDOVER REPORTED A 17 INCH SNOW DEPTH AND PRESQUE
ISLE AN 18 INCH SNOW DEPTH.

SNOW DEPTHS IN THE MOOSEHEAD AREA AVERAGED AROUND 13 INCHES WITH
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AROUND 2.7 INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTHS ALONG THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AVERAGE AROUND 11 INCHES
WITH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS AROUND 3.1 INCHES.

OVERALL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH ALONG
THE COAST...1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE. THESE SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TO PERHAPS NEAR NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX (PDSI) SPANS WEEKS TO MONTHS IN
DURATION IN DETERMINING THE LONG TERM MOISTURE CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM 13 JANUARY 2018 SHOWED
MOST OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS AS
WELL AS MOST OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE NEAR LAKE ONTARIO AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY REGION OF
NORTHERN NEW YORK ALSO INDICATED EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS.

VERY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS OF NEW
YORK. UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITIONS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY OF BOTH NEW YORK STATE AND VERMONT...ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE AND ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES AS OF 15 JANUARY 2018 SHOWED DRIER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WETTER THAN NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE FOUND FROM
WESTERN NEW YORK INTO THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND ALSO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY AREA OF NEW YORK STATE. WETTER THAN NORMAL SOIL
MOISTURE ANOMALIES WERE ALSO FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MOST OF MAIN.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR UTILIZES THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT
MOISTURE INDEX (PDSI) AND NEAR TERM CROP MOISTURE INDEX (CMI). THE
LATEST ISSUANCE ON 09 JANUARY 2018 INDICATED ABNORMALLY DRY
CONDITIONS FROM THE CATSKILLS TO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND AND ALSO
WESTERN CONNECTICUT. ALSO A NARROW AREA OF ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WAS ALSO INDICATED ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION OF NEW YORK.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
AND NEW ENGLAND COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
(USGS)...

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM BELOW NORMAL ACROSS FAR EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM NORMAL TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACK REGION.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NOW NEAR NORMAL.

IMPROVEMENT IN GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAS OCCURRED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN JANUARY AND RECHARGE FROM SOME
SNOWMELT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK...SEVERANCE IMPROVED FROM ITS LOWEST
GROUNDWATER LEVEL TO BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SUNY ALBANY REMAINED WITHIN THE 25TH TO 50TH
PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER LEVELS THIS TIME OF YEAR. MEANWHILE THE
BEAR MOUNTAIN STATE PARK GROUNDWATER LEVEL HAD DECREASED TO BETWEEN
THE LOWEST MEDIAN AND 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE AQUIFERS ON LONG ISLAND CONTINUE TO INDICATE WELL BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WESTBURY INDICATED ITS LOWEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 15 JANUARY 2018. THE
UPTON NEW YORK GROUNDWATER LEVEL WAS AT ITS 10TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS OF 15 JANUARY 2018.

ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE ADIRONDACKS REGION...BATAVIA
IMPROVED TO ITS RECORD HIGH MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW YORK...CLARENCE
GAINESVILLE...MANCHESTER...AUBURN AND VOLNEY WERE ALL REPORTING
RECORD HIGH MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS OF 15
JANUARY 2018. CALEDONIA ALSO REPORTED GROUNDWATER LEVEL IMPROVEMENT
TO NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE.

ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...ORLEANS AT FOUR CORNERS RECENTLY
REPORTED A RECORD HIGH GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LOUISVILLE REMAINED BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER
LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGIONS WERE REPORTING 50TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER LEVELS.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE MOSTLY INCREASED AND IMPROVED DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN JANUARY...AND RECENT MELT AND RUNOFF
FROM THE SNOWPACK.

IN CONNECTICUT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE NOW AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS PORTIONS THE STATE. GROUNDWATER LEVELS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST BUT HAVE IMPROVED TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. GREENWICH WAS REPORTING ITS LOWEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SALISBURY AND SOUTHBURY GROUNDWATER LEVELS
REMAINED BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE BUT SOME RECENT
IMPROVEMENT WAS NOTED. MANSFIELD IMPROVED TO BETWEEN THE 50TH TO
75TH PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN RHODE ISLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED TO NEAR NORMAL TO
ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY WITHIN THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE LEVELS.
SOUTH KINGSTOWN WAS NEARING THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR GROUNDWATER
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BURRILLVILLE WAS NOW REPORTING ITS
HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED TO NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL. MANY LOCATIONS ARE NOW REPORTING 50TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE ARE SOME EXCEPTIONS WHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE STILL BELOW
NORMAL. LAKEVILLE AND PLYMOUTH REMAINED BETWEEN THE 10TH TO 25TH
PERCENTILE LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SHEFFIELD AND MONTGOMERY
IMPROVED TO BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 25TH PERCENTILE GROUNDWATER LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE AQUIFERS ON OUTER CAPE COD WERE CONTINUING TO SHOW ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS... MOSTLY BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FROM
BARNSTABLE TO TRURO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE MOSTLY INCREASED AND IMPROVED DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION SO FAR IN JANUARY...AND RECENT MELT AND RUNOFF
FROM THE SNOWPACK.

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS BETWEEN THE 50TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE WERE RECENTLY REPORTED.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE IMPROVED NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GROUNDWATER LEVELS BETWEEN THE 50TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILE WERE RECENTLY REPORTED.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS HAVE GENERALLY IMPROVED TO NEAR NORMAL
TO ABOVE NORMAL. KENDUSKEAG...AMHERST AND HADLEY LAKE IN EASTERN
MAINE WERE REPORTING THEIR HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVELS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE GENERALLY
AVERAGING WITHIN THE 50TH TO 75TH PERCENTILES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE...WAS AT 74.4 PERCENT
CAPACITY AS OF 12 JANUARY 2018...WHICH WAS 11.9 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

THE SCITUATE RI RESERVOIR LEVEL WAS 282.47 FT AS OF JANUARY 3RD
2018. THIS LEVEL IS AROUND 1.5 FEET BELOW THE SPILLWAY.

IN MAINE...THE ANDROSCOGGIN RESERVOIRS ARE AT 70.9 PERCENT CAPACITY
AS OF 15 JANUARY 2018...OR 14.8 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

STREAMFLOW LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND RECENT SNOWMELT
THUS FAR IN JANUARY.

ICE COVERAGE RECENTLY DECREASED DUE TO THE JANUARY THAW...RUNOFF AND
RELEASE FROM THE 9TH TO 12TH. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
HAS HELPED TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL ICE TO THE BASINS AND MANY RIVER
POINT LOCATIONS REMAIN ICE AFFECTED. THERE WERE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF
MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE NERFC AREA DUE TO ICE JAMS RAINFALL
AND SNOW MELT WHICH CREATED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND A BACKUP OF WATER.

IN NEW YORK STATE...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL FLOWS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND THE NEW YORK CITY METROPOLITAN AREA.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL IN CONNECTICUT.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE....STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS ARE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.

ICE THICKNESSES AND COVERAGE VARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DUE TO
THINNING AND DETERIORATION OF THE ICE DUE TO THE JANUARY THAW.

THICK WIDESPREAD ICE FROM 8 TO 16 INCHES STILL REMAINS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN MAINE.

NUMEROUS BREAKUP AND FREEZE UP ICE JAMS HAVE OCCURRED AND REMAIN DUE
TO THE THAW MOVEMENT RELEASE AND REFREEZE.

THE FOLLOWING ARE RECENT REPORTS OF ICE JAMS ACROSS THE NERFC AREA
COURTESY NWS AND USGS REPORTS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND THE MEDIA.
IN ADDITION A RIVER ICE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED ON JANUARY 15TH.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THERE IS AN ICE JAM IN PLACE ABOUT ONE MILE LONG ALONG THE
HOUSATONIC RIVER IN KENT CONNECTICUT. FLOODING WAS OCCURRING AND
EVACUATIONS WERE TAKING PLACE. ROUTE 7 IN KENT WAS CLOSED DUE TO
FLOODING. FLOODING WAS ALSO REPORTED ALONG THE SHEPAUG RIVER IN
ROXBURY CONNECTICUT CLOSE TO HODGE PARK DUE TO ICE JAMS. FOUR ICE
JAMS TOTAL WERE REPORTED ALONG THE HOUSATONIC RIVER IN CONNECTICUT.

THERE IS ANOTHER ICE JAM ON THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER SOUTH OF
MIDDLE HADDAM USGS GAGE AND THIS STRETCHES A FEW MILES. THE JAM HAS
CAUSED FLOODING AT HADDAM MEADOWS STATE PARK AND SOME LOCAL MARINA
DAMAGE.

THE EVENING OF JANUARY 12TH...AN ICE JAM BRIEFLY FORMED ON THE
FARMINGTON RIVER IN UNIONVILLE CONNECTICUT. THE ICE JAM SHORTLY
RELEASED THEREAFTER. NO FLOOD IMPACTS WERE REPORTED.

THE EVENING OF JANUARY 12TH...AN ICE JAM FORMED ON THE WEST BRANCH
OF THE WESTFIELD RIVER IN HUNTINGTON MASSACHUSETTS. THE ICE JAM
BROKE FREE AND THEN REFORMED ON THE WESTFIELD RIVER IN WESTFIELD
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREAKING FREE ON THE 13TH. NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED.

JANUARY 13TH...AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ALONG THE WARE RIVER IN WARE
MASSACHUSETTS CAUSING FLOODING AT CHURCH STREET.

JANUARY 13TH...AN ICE JAM FORMED AND RELEASED ON THE QUINEBAUG RIVER
IN QUINEBAUG CONNECTICUT. NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED.

AN ICE JAM FORMED ON THE MILLERS RIVER IN ATHOL MASSACHUSETTS AT THE
SOUTH MAIN BRIDGE. THE ICE JAM CAUSED FLOODING OF BUILDINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ICE JAM.

IN VERMONT...

THERE IS A SIX MILE ICE JAM ALONG THE MISSISQUOI RIVER IN SWANTON
VERMONT...CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING ALONG ROUTE 78 NEAR THE MISSISQUOI
NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.

JANUARY 13TH AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED WITH FLOODING ALONG THE WEST
RIVER IN JAMAICA VERMONT.

JANUARY 12TH AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED IN TROY ALONG THE MISSISQUOI
RIVER.

JANUARY 12TH AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED IN NEW HAVEN VERMONT ALONG THE
NEW HAVEN RIVER.

JANUARY 12TH AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED IN MORETOWN ALONG THE MAD RIVER.

IN MAINE...

AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ON THE KENNEBEC RIVER WITH FLOODING EXPECTED
AT AUGUSTA MAINE. THE ICE JAM IS LOCATED BETWEEN BROWNS ISLAND IN
FARMINGDALE AND HALLOWELL MAINE.

AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN PLACE AT KENDUSKEAG STREAM IN BANGOR MAINE.
ICE BROKE UP EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN LOCKED UP FURTHER
DOWNSTREAM. THE JAM EXTENDS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PENOBSCOT BACK TO
THE BRIDGE CROSSING HARLOW STREET AT THE BASE OF DRUMMOND HILL.

THE PENOBSCOT RIVER IN DOWNTOWN BANGOR IS ICED OVER WITH SOME OPEN
WATER ON THE SIDES. ICE IS LOCKED UP NEAR EDDINGTON.

IN NORTHERN MAINE...RIVERS ARE ABOUT 90 PERCENT SNOW AND ICE COVERED
WITH A FEW OPEN CHANNELS NOTED ESPECIALLY ON THE PENOBSCOT AND
PORTIONS OF THE AROOSTOOK AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS. THE FISH RIVER HAS
OPEN WATER. ICE THICKNESSES WERE 8 TO 14 INCHES.

BREAKUP/FREEZE UP JAMS ARE PREVALENT ON THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER AND
KINGSBURY STREAM.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

JANUARY 13TH...AN ICE JAM WITH FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON THE
CONTOOCOOK RIVER IN PETERBOROUGH NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THERE IS ICE BUILDUP REPORTED SOUTH OF PLYMOUTH NEW HAMPSHIRE.

IN NEW YORK STATE...

THERE IS AN ICE JAM ALONG THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER AT
WARRENSBURG...THURMAN STATION AND ATHOL NEW YORK WITH FLOODING ALONG
ROUTE 418... RIVER ROAD AND STONY CREEK ROAD.

THERE IS ANOTHER ICE JAM ON THE LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER SOUTH OF
MIDDLE HADDAM USGS GAGE AND THIS STRETCHES A FEW MILES. THE JAM HAS
CAUSED FLOODING AT HADDAM MEADOWS STATE PARK AND SOME LOCAL MARINA
DAMAGE.

ANOTHER ICE JAM ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOWMELT WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE SARANAC RIVER IN PLATTSBURGH NEW YORK WITH FLOODING REPORTED AT
UNDERWOOD PARK.

AN EXTENDED ICE JAM ON THE MOHAWK RIVER WAS CONTINUING TO CAUSE
FLOODING IN THE STOCKADE DISTRICT IN SCHENECTADY NEW YORK ACCORDING
TO MEDIA REPORTS. FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN RIVERSIDE PARK AND
BETWEEN NORTH FERRY STREET AND INGERSOLL AVENUE.

AN ICE JAM WAS REPORTED ALONG THE HOOSIC RIVER IN BUSKIRK NEW YORK.
FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON COUNTY ROUTE 103 AND RIVER ROAD.

JANUARY 12TH...A BREAKUP ICE JAM WAS REPORTED AT NORTHVILLE ALONG THE
SACANDAGA RIVER.

JANUARY 12TH...A BREAK UP ICE JAM WAS REPORTED AT AU SABLE FORKS
ALONG THE AU SABLE RIVER.

FLIGHT LINES ON JANUARY 15TH INDICATED PARTIALLY OPEN CHANNELS ALONG
THE SALMON RIVER NEAR FORT COVINGTON NEW YORK WITH SOME ICE JAMS
OBSERVED.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
FINGER LAKES REGION...BLACK RIVER BASIN...THE ADIRONDACKS AND TUG
HILL REGION. THE COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENTS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION AND
EXTREMELY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FAVOR AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR THESE AREAS.

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MERRIMACK VALLEY REGION AND INTERIOR AND WESTERN MAINE. THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS UNUSUALLY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...FORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVOR A SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL.

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHEAST. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION. A GOOD PORTION OF THE SNOWPACK MELTED DUE TO THE JANUARY
THAW FROM THE 9TH-12TH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST. LONGER TERM ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL TO UNUSUALLY MOIST.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NUMEROUS ICE JAMS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST. THE LOSS OF DEEPER SNOWPACK FROM THE JANUARY 9-12
THAW WILL OFFSET HEAVIER RUNOFF POTENTIAL. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RUNOFF WILL CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL BACKUP
OF WATER AND GRADUAL RELEASE OF ICE. THE NEXT WARMUP AND
PRECIPITATION EVENT ON THE 22ND AND 23RD MAY CAUSE A MORE RAPID
RELEASE OF ICE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST AND THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE RUNOFF
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ICE RELEASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
WEEKS.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NERFC ON THURSDAY 01 FEBRUARY 2018.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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