Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER, WILMINGTON OH
1238 PM EDT Monday, September 1, 2014

THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER

.WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...

The September OHRFC Water Resources Outlook calls for Normal to Above normal
streamflows for the vast majority of the Ohio Valley.  Above normals are a
little more prevalent in the western and southwestern halves of the basin, in
Indiana, western KY, and middle TN. The eastern reaches of the basin, however,
are tending to lean more to the normal side.  Remember that September is
typically one of the climatologically lower average streamflow months.
.....................................................................

.HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL...

Rainfall is expected to be sufficient enough during September in the
Ohio River Basin to avoid drought conditions. Flood potential will be near
normal.
.....................................................................

AUGUST HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW...
RAINFALL DEPARTURES...

In general terms, August saw normal to above normal rainfall for much of the
Ohio River forecast basin.  Large areas of 150% of normal and above were seen in
middle TN, Kentucky, Indiana, and a good bit of Ohio.  Small areas of 200% or
more were imbedded in some of these areas.  Only small sections of northwest OH,
northeast IN, and eastern WV were below normal for the month.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ohrfc/drought.html

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

Soil moisture conditions here at the end of August are generally normal across
the bulk of the Ohio River basin.  There appears to be one area of dryness
through southeastern OH and into West Virginia.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml

STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS...

Normal to above normal streamflow conditions exist over the vast majority of the
Ohio valley.  Only below normal streamflow conditons of note appear in central
and eastern West Virginia here at month`s end.

http://watermonitor.gov

.....................................................................

.ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR SEPTEMBER...

TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN
ARCTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral to slight below = Normal to slightly below average

NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
Neutral = Normal

PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION
Negative, switching positive mid-month = Above, then switch to below

ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION
Neutral to Weak = Slightly Above Normal for Lower Ohio Valley

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov

.....................................................................

.TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...

The end of August has seen a bit more of a tropical moisture feed to any
systems which have been making their way to the Ohio valley.  This feed has
predominantly come from the Pacific, so that coupled with the forecast of a
developing El Nino by mid to late Fall (albeit a decreasing trend) lends to
the idea of slightly wetter outlook as we head into September.  In addition,
CFSv2 climate model points to an above normal precipitation outlook,
particularly for the western and lower halves of the Ohio River valley.

.......................................................................

VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO.shtml

IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A
60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE

$$




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