Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 231036
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

...Showers and thunderstorms today...

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will track through the region today and
bring a good chance for showers and thunderstorms to northern
lower Michigan...particularly this afternoon and early evening.
Otherwise...cloudy skies...slightly cooler temperatures compared
to Saturday and a fairly humid airmass will keep conditions safely
away from critical fire weather parameters.

High pressure then  yields precipitation free conditions Monday
and Tuesday. A cold front moving through during the middle of next
week will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be cooler through Monday then warm through mid
week.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Showers likely
                    until 1200. chance of thunderstorms. chance of
                    showers after 1200. Patchy fog after 1400.
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........76-81 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    east in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (250).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.22-0.84 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0300. patchy fog after 0500. Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2000. chance of rain
                    showers until 0200. slight chance of rain
                    showers after 0200.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.43 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......28 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (580).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1000. patchy fog after 1500. Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1200. showers
                    likely and chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........73-78 percent...except 84-89 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 9 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.12-0.44 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0400. Chance of thunderstorms until 2400. rain
                    showers likely.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (200).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.06-0.48 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers
                    until 0800.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 66-71 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (690).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 1000, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms until 1500.
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    after 1500.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........69-74 percent...except 87-92 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 9 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.10-0.48 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2000. slight chance of rain
                    showers until 0200. Patchy fog after 0100.
Min Temperature.....57-62...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.36 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (520).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-232015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1000. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms until 1200. chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph shifting to the west
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (400).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.08-0.37 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2000. slight chance of rain
                    showers until 0200. Patchy fog after 0100.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (40).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.14 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (530).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
636 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1000. Chance of showers until 1200. chance of
                    thunderstorms. showers likely after 1200.
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........66-71 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (180).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 3 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........0.09-0.42 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 2400. chance of rain
                    showers. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (120).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.03-0.69 in.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    0700.
Max Temperature.....72-77.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (560).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. PATCHY FOG. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60.
HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$





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