Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 232222
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...RAIN TO END THE WORKWEEK WITH COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING EAST OF THE ROCKIES...WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BEFORE EXITING NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE A ROUND OF RAIN AND NEARLY
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

SOME SUN AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND...AS A LARGE AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND CONTINUED COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...
ARE EXPECTED TO TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...AS A PLAINS SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-241000-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 42-47 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT 56-61 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12
                    TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (720).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 9 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (160).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.09-0.31 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54...EXCEPT 37-42 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 6 DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1060).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 21 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.12-0.27 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-241000-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....23-28.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......16 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MIN HUMIDITY........31-36 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 17 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 12 TO 15
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (550).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.17 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400...THEN
                    CHANCE OF RAIN.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 2 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........50-55 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1170).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 24 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.26 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-241000-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29...EXCEPT AROUND 31 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-90 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 39-44 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........36-41 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (930).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL
                    2000...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT...EXCEPT 80-85 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (210).
MIXING HEIGHT.......800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 24 TO 27 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.18-0.29 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT AROUND 40 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 76-81 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 22 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    24 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.05-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-241000-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) UNTIL 2400...THEN
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31...EXCEPT 33-38 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........84-89 PERCENT...EXCEPT 70-75 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......9 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (20).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND
                    6 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 8 DEGREES WARMER NEAR THE
                    COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......20 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1140).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 15 TO 21MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    UNTIL 2000...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 0200...THEN
                    RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (200).
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 24 TO 30 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.20-0.32 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57...EXCEPT 44-49 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 4 DEGREES COOLER NEAR
                    THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........52-57 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT WETTER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1610).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST AROUND
                    27 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.07-0.17 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-241000-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
622 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.REST OF TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....24-29.
   24 HR TREND......5 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........92-97 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......17 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 12 TO
                    15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (780).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 6 TO 15 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    AFTER 2000 UNTIL 0200...THEN RAIN.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......11 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (130).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 18 TO 24 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.06-0.22 IN.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). RAIN UNTIL
                    0800...THEN RAIN LIKELY UNTIL 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......5 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (1820).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........AROUND 0.18 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID
40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS AROUND 30.
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

ADAM





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