Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 041923
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...RAIN-FREE AND WARMER WEATHER RETURN...

.DISCUSSION...LINGERING RAINS WILL END TONIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
RAIN-FREE AND INCREASINGLY MILD WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SCOUR OUT...WITH GOOD RH FALL-OFFS
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT MIN RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THURSDAY...FALLING TO NEAR
OR BELOW ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES...MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARRIVE LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-050815-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2100.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 24 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.09 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 66-71 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 20 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (380).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........82-87 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......7 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......11 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 48-53 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (240).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-050815-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1900. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2000.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (60).
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.20 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......10 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......30 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 21 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (580).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......3 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 77-82 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 8 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......7 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT...EXCEPT 49-54 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (190).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-050815-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 11 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.14 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63...EXCEPT 40-45 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......14 DEGREES WARMER...EXCEPT 7 DEGREES WARMER
                    NEAR THE COAST.
MIN HUMIDITY........46-51 PERCENT...EXCEPT 73-78 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......29 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 14 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (390).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......8 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 47-52 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT...EXCEPT 68-73 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (300).
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ031>033-050815-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
                    UNTIL 2100...THEN RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL
                    2200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL
                    2300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....37-42.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT...EXCEPT 74-79 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 15 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND
                    5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (70).
MIXING HEIGHT.......600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 24 MPH DECREASING TO AROUND 12 MPH
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.16 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....59-64...EXCEPT 48-53 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........47-52 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......33 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (570).
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 12 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-85 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (0).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
                    3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....70-75...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......12 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........33-38 PERCENT...EXCEPT 52-57 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......13 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (290).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-050815-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
323 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
                    UP TO 20 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (80).
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.01-0.19 IN.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (60-70 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65.
   24 HR TREND......15 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......35 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (730).
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40.
   24 HR TREND......4 DEGREES COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH IN THE EVENING
                    BECOMING LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....69-74.
   24 HR TREND......8 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........30-35 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......12 PERCENT DRIER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........6 OR HIGH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB


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