Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 010934
FWFAPX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RECENT WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
SIMILAR...GENERALLY ENDING UP IN THE 35 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WHILE
TEMPERATURES GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...ALL WHILE WINDS REMAIN
VERY LIGHT. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT ACROSS
NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN EACH AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK.

MIZ016-017-019-021>023-012030-
EMMET...CHEBOYGAN...CHARLEVOIX...ANTRIM...OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY
COUNTIES-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT AROUND 70 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT...EXCEPT 53-58 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 5 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (510).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST AROUND
                    6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....78-83...EXCEPT AROUND 71 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 61-66 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT DRIER...EXCEPT 7 PERCENT WETTER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012030-
PRESQUE ISLE...ALPENA...ALCONA...IOSCO AND ARENAC
COUNTIES...INCLUDING EASTERN HURON NF-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........41-46 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 6 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (460).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55...EXCEPT 57-62 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......3 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    IN THE EVENING.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 3 TO 6 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.08 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST AROUND 3 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012030-
LEELANAU...BENZIE...GRAND TRAVERSE AND KALKASKA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE SLEEPING BEAR DUNES NL-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....75-80...EXCEPT 60-65 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 63-68 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED...EXCEPT 13 PERCENT DRIER ALONG THE
                    COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (540).
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST
                    AROUND 6 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....51-56.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.01 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 61-66 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT...EXCEPT 75-80 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......4 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (250).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.02 IN.


$$

MIZ031>033-012030-
MANISTEE...WEXFORD AND MISSAUKEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN QUARTER OF MANISTEE NF-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81...EXCEPT 69-74 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........37-42 PERCENT...EXCEPT 51-56 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 10 PERCENT DRIER
                    ALONG THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (640).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS AFTER 2000 UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE COOLER.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......1 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST
                    AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.03 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82...EXCEPT 70-75 NEAR THE COAST.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........44-49 PERCENT...EXCEPT 54-59 PERCENT ALONG THE
                    COAST.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER...EXCEPT 4 PERCENT DRIER ALONG
                    THE COAST.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........GOOD (310).
MIXING HEIGHT.......8700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.04 IN.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012030-
CRAWFORD...OSCODA...ROSCOMMON...OGEMAW AND GLADWIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING WESTERN HURON NF-
534 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.TODAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT) UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY
                    SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL 0800.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1400.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....76-81.
   24 HR TREND......2 DEGREES WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........38-43 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........EXCELLENT (740).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.06 IN.

.TONIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). ISOLATED RAIN
                    SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. PATCHY FOG AFTER 2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.
   24 HR TREND......UNCHANGED.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......2 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS UP TO 5 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING
                    LIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (10).
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.

.SATURDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG UNTIL
                    0800.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....77-82.
   24 HR TREND......1 DEGREE WARMER.
MIN HUMIDITY........42-47 PERCENT.
   24 HR TREND......6 PERCENT WETTER.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
                    SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
VENT RATE...........FAIR (220).
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
PCPN AMOUNT.........NONE TO 0.05 IN.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

LAWRENCE




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