Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FNUS51 KBUF 010858
FWFBUF

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR WESTERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL TAPER TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TOWARD THE PA LINE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF MONDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE
COMING WEEK AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

NYZ001-002-010-011-012115-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                    100           80           80
PRECIP TYPE                      RAIN         RAIN      SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       56           42           54
AM WIND (MPH)                    E  9                      N  5
PM WIND (MPH)                   NE  6         N  5         N  6
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.16         0.06         0.13
PRECIP DURATION                     4            4            6
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         2 PM
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               75           92           61
HAINES INDEX                        2            2            2
LAL                                 1            1            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              2170          320         4710
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              N  7        NE  6         N  8
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               15190         1920        37680
DISPERSION INDEX                   15            2           38
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ012-019>021-085-012115-
WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                     80           80           90
PRECIP TYPE             SHOWERS/TSTMS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       59           42           54
AM WIND (MPH)                    S  8                     NE  5
PM WIND (MPH)                   SW  7      LGT/VAR         N  6
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.21         0.18         0.30
PRECIP DURATION                     4            6            6
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         2 PM
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               73           97           63
HAINES INDEX                        2            2            2
LAL                                 5            5            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              5350          340         4570
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)              W 11        NW  7         N  9
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               58850         2380        41130
DISPERSION INDEX                   59            2           41
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ003>005-013-014-012115-
MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                     MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                    100           60           80
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS         RAIN      SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       57           44           52
AM WIND (MPH)                   SE  9                      N  5
PM WIND (MPH)                   SE  8      LGT/VAR        NW  8
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.24         0.07         0.25
PRECIP DURATION                     6            4            7
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         3 PM
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               73           94           65
HAINES INDEX                        2            2            2
LAL                                 5            5            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              3450          290         4640
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE  8        NW  6         N 10
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               27600         1740        46400
DISPERSION INDEX                   28            2           46
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

NYZ006>008-012115-
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

                                TODAY      TONIGHT          MON
CLOUD COVER                    CLOUDY        MCLDY       CLOUDY
PRECIP CHC (%)                    100           50           80
PRECIP TYPE                   SHOWERS      SHOWERS      SHOWERS
MIN/MAX TEMP                       50           40           51
AM WIND (MPH)                   SE  5                   LGT/VAR
PM WIND (MPH)                   SE  8        SE  6        NW  5
PRECIP AMOUNT                    0.31         0.11         0.29
PRECIP DURATION                     9            2            6
PRECIP BEGIN                     6 AM   CONTINUING   CONTINUING
PRECIP END                 CONTINUING   CONTINUING         5 PM
MAX/MIN HUMIDITY (%)               57           96           74
HAINES INDEX                        3            2            2
LAL                                 1            3            1
MIXING HGT (FT-AGL)              4590          280         5030
TRANSPORT WIND (KT)             SE 16        SE  4        NW  6
VENT RATE (KT-FT)               73440         1120        30180
DISPERSION INDEX                   73            1           30
REMARKS...NONE.

$$

.EXTENDED FORECAST...

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.

WIND MONDAY NIGHT...NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND TUESDAY...NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND WEDNESDAY...SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
WIND THURSDAY...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.  PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

$$

SMITH



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