Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FNUS54 KMRX 202020
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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...Southwest
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Warm, moist air will continue to spread across the
Tennessee Valley resulting in unseasonably warm temperatures for the
remainder of the week. The higher temperatures and additional
moisture will result in the possibilty of showers, and possibly a
few thunderstorms each day.

VAZ001-002-005-006-008-212130-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      53-58 (+3)   71-76 (-1)   52-57        65-70
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (+3)   48-53 (+10)  95-100       64-69
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  9 G28                  S  7 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  6 G21     SW  9 G28    LGT/VAR      SW  7 G19
Precip type           NONE         tstms        showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     0            50           50           60
Precip duration                    1            1            3
Precip begin                       7 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.13         0.16         0.24
LAL                   1            2            1            1
LASI/Haines                        3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5800                      3900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3800                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 21                     SW 15
Dispersion                         64 Good                   23 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 11 G28                  S  9 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G21     SW 11 G28    S  5         SW 10 G19

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
lower to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely. Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Northwest
winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the 50s to
lower 60s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
50s. North winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-212130-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      52-57 (+4)   68-73 (+1)   51-56        64-69
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+5)  48-53 (+7)   95-100       63-68
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  7 G20                  S  8 G20
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G20     SW  6 G19    S  6 G17     W  8 G20
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           40           50           50
Precip duration       1            1            1            1
Precip begin          1 AM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.12         0.12         0.10
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6300                      4500
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3600                      1800
Transport wnd (mph)                S 16                      W 13
Dispersion                         50 Gen good               19 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  9 G20                  S 11 G20
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G20     SW  8 G19    S  8 G17     W 11 G20

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
60s to lower 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in
the 40s to upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Northwest winds up
to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds less
than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Northwest winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ072-074-212130-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      54-59 (+2)   67-72 (0)    52-57        65-70
RH % (24h trend)      91-96 (+9)   51-56 (+6)   95-100       62-67
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW 10 G30                 SW 10 G25
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S 11 G30     SW  9 G26    S  8 G21     SW  9 G22
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           40           50           50
Precip duration       1            1            1            1
Precip begin          10 PM        Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.04         0.17         0.17         0.11
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 6500                      4600
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3500                      1600
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 22                     SW 14
Dispersion                         61 Good                   18 Gen poor
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW 12 G30                 SW 12 G25
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 14 G30     SW 11 G26    S  9 G21     SW 11 G22

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 40s to upper 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 60s to mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 40s
to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the upper 50s to lower 70s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows around
40. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ087-102-212130-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      57-62 (0)    71-76 (+5)   54-59        69-74
RH % (24h trend)      95-100 (+11) 52-57 (-5)   95-100       60-65
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  7 G20                  S  8 G21
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  8 G23     SW  8 G22    S  6 G16     SW  8 G20
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           40           50           40
Precip duration       1            1            1            1
Precip begin          10 PM        Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.12         0.16         0.15
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5900                      4400
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3900                      2400
Transport wnd (mph)                S 18                      SW 13
Dispersion                         62 Good                   26 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  9 G20                  S 11 G21
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 10 G23     SW 11 G22    S  8 G16     SW 10 G20

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
mid 60s to upper 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. Northwest
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Northeast winds
less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

NCZ060-061-212130-
Nantahala National Forest-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

CLOUD COVER           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      55-60 (-1)   69-74 (+6)   54-59        68-73
RH % (24H TREND)      95-100 (+10) 57-62 (-7)   95-100       62-67
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   S  8 G19
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      SW  6 G16    S  5         SW  7 G18
PRECIP TYPE           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           40           50           40
PRECIP DURATION       1            1            1            1
PRECIP BEGIN          10 PM        Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.04         0.17         0.16         0.10
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 6000                      4500
MIXING HGT(FT-AGL)*                3700                      2300
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                S 13                      SW 12
DISPERSION                         38 Fair                   21 Fair
MAX LVORI                          4                         5
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  6 G15                 S 11 G19
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        SW  7 G16    S  7         SW 10 G18

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Highs in the 60s to lower 70s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. West winds
5 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. Northeast winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-212130-
East Tennessee District East-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      54-59 (+4)   74-79 (-1)   54-59        67-72
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (+4)   47-52 (+9)   95-100       63-68
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  5 G16                  S  7 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  5         SW  8 G22    LGT/VAR      SW  8 G20
Precip type           NONE         tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     0            40           50           50
Precip duration                    1            1            1
Precip begin                       7 AM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end                         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.00         0.12         0.16         0.14
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5700                      4000
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                4200                      2500
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 17                     SW 15
Dispersion                         62 Good                   32 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  5 G16                  S  9 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  6         SW 10 G22    S  5         SW 11 G20

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower to mid 60s. Northwest winds up
to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. North winds less
than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the 50s
to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-212130-
East Tennessee District West-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      57-62 (+4)   73-78 (-1)   55-60        68-73
RH % (24h trend)      91-96 (+2)   49-54 (+3)   95-100       62-67
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  SW  6 G20                 SW  8 G19
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  7 G20     SW  8 G23    S  5         SW  7 G19
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     20           50           50           50
Precip duration       1            1            1            1
Precip begin          1 AM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.01         0.12         0.22         0.27
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 5100                      3900
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3800                      2600
Transport wnd (mph)                SW 22                     SW 14
Dispersion                         72 Good                   32 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SW  9 G20                 SW 10 G19
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S  9 G20     SW 11 G23    S  6         SW 10 G19

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. North winds up to
10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. North winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-212130-
Cumberland District South-
320 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 /220 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        MCldy        MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      59-64 (+5)   73-78 (+4)   56-61        71-76
RH % (24h trend)      93-98 (+2)   50-55 (-5)   95-100       60-65
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  S  8 G22                  S  8 G18
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     S  9 G23     S  9 G24     S  5         SW  8 G18
Precip type           showers      tstms        tstms        tstms
Chance precip (%)     30           50           50           50
Precip duration       1            1            1            1
Precip begin          10 PM        Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip amount         0.02         0.10         0.19         0.28
LAL                   1            2            2            2
LASI/Haines                        3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4900                      4200
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)*                3800                      3000
Transport wnd (mph)                S 22                      SW 13
Dispersion                         72 Good                   34 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S 10 G22                  S 11 G18
33ft wind-PM(mph)     S 11 G23     S 11 G24     S  7         SW 10 G18

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows
in the upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Highs in the
70s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the
upper 50s. South winds less than 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Cloudy. Chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Southwest winds
up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s. Highs in the 60s. North winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the
mid 40s. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Northeast winds less
than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs near 60.
Northeast winds less than 10 mph.


*The AGL Mixing Height is calculated from an average elevation for
the entire Forecast Zone and should only be used as a guide.
For a specific AGL Mixing Height a Spot Forecast will be needed.

$$



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