Land Management Forecasts
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FNUS86 KSGX 302138
FWLSGX
SGXWRKECC
WORK DISCUSSION FOR SAN DIEGO FIRE WEATHER ECC DISPATCH FORECASTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
238 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014

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##           ECC033, ECC034 or ECC035-                  ##
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##                LAXECCSGX                             ##
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## (note that ECC033, etc. are no longer separate PILs) ##
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##    discussions in the fire weather forecast (and     ##
##    they apply to Phoenix`s part of the ECC034 too).  ##
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SUMMARY OF FWF DISCUSSIONS

Discussion from LAXFWFSGX


THE COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL INCLUDE
THE SILVERADO BURN AREA IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
RAINFALL RATE COULD REACH ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR AND PRODUCE
LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 55 MPH NEAR SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


Discussion from LAXFWFLOX

OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND WILL TURN ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLING TREND TODAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASE
IN HUMIDITY VALUES. AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT...THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOWER
COASTAL SLOPES...ALONG WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE THE LOS ANGELES
BASIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO
AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...RANGING BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...EXCEPT
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH
IN THE SAN GABRIEL MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 MPH.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL MODERATE SANTA ANA WINDS BY WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY...THIS WILL BE
A COOL SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON MONDAY, WARMING
INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HUMIDITIES
IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.


Discussion from SFOFWFHNX

WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
TODAY WITH LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND RIDGE WINDS.  THE STORM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE DISTRICT
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE WEEKEND
WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAIN PASSES SATURDAY AND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CALIFORNIA NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER...LIGHT WINDS AND A WARMING TREND.



Discussion from RNOFWFVEF

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BRINGING
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT. OTHERWISE EXPECT WARM WEATHER
THROUGH HALLOWEEN BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM MOVES ON IN USHERING IN
GUSTY WINDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS HALLOWEEN NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


Discussion from PHXFWFPSR


ABNORMALLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE DISTRICT SATURDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED...ONLY FALLING INTO A 15 TO 35
PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY...AND A 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE SATURDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE WITH SOME GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS OVER RIDGE TOPS
IN GILA COUNTY ON FRIDAY...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD WEST AND SOUTHWEST
GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

NOTE...ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION. SEE PRODUCT PHXAFDPSR.


############# Modify the discussions below ###############

ECC033-310938-

DISCUSSION FOR ORANGE ECC DISPATCH
238 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014


THE COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL INCLUDE
THE SILVERADO BURN AREA IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
RAINFALL RATE COULD REACH ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR AND PRODUCE
LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 55 MPH NEAR SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

$$

ECC034-310938-

DISCUSSION FOR RIVERSIDE ECC DISPATCH
238 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014


THE COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL INCLUDE
THE SILVERADO BURN AREA IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
RAINFALL RATE COULD REACH ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR AND PRODUCE
LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 55 MPH NEAR SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

$$

ECC035-310938-

DISCUSSION FOR MONTE VISTA ECC DISPATCH
238 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014


THE COOLING AND MOISTENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY DUE TO
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
GREATEST RAINFALL ON THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL INCLUDE
THE SILVERADO BURN AREA IN THE SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
RAINFALL RATE COULD REACH ONE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR AND PRODUCE
LOCAL FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL GUSTS OVER 55 MPH NEAR SAN GORGONIO PASS AND
ON THE DESERT MOUNTAIN SLOPES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBLE OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

$$




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