Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 201731
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for Elkhorn 3 Piles...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1030 AM MST Sat Jan 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 MST on January 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A Four Corners low will track across Southern
Colorado on Sunday bringing snow, possibly heavy at times late
tonight and Sunday morning. Expect good to excellent smoke disersal
after 8 am Sunday morning. Snow accumulations of 6 to 12 expected by
late Sunday afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 41.
Min humidity........42%.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5-6 mph.
Mixing height.......2200-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 15-20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1300, then fair until 1500, then
                    poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of snow until 2000, then snow
                    likely until 2300, then snow.
CWR.................5 percent increasing to 95 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 16.
Max humidity........100%.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5-10 mph.
Mixing height.......1000-2000 ft AGL until 0400, then 2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Snow until 1100, then snow likely.
CWR.................100 percent decreasing to 55 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 25.
Min humidity........57%.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 8-18 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5200-6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 20-30 mph until 1100, then 30-40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0600, then fair until 0800, then
                    good until 1000, then very good until 1200,
                    then excellent.
Haines Index........2 very low.


Fire Weather Table for Elkhorn 3 Piles.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

01/20-11 64  3  1 41 46   S  6 12 2 1         3428 SSW 13 38195 P
01/20-12 67  4  1 41 46   S  7 13 2 1         3377 SSW 14 39876 P
01/20-13 70  6  1 41 46   S  8 13 2 1         3326   S 14 41489  F
01/20-14 74  8  2 39 50   S  8 12 2 1         3276   S 15 43034  F
01/20-15 77  9  2 37 54 SSE  7  7 2 1         2624   S 14 31624 P
01/20-16 80 11  2 34 64  SE  6  6 3 1         1972 SSE 13 21629 P
01/20-17 83 25  5 31 72 ESE  5  6 3 1         1321 SSE 12 13049 P
01/20-18 89 39 17 28 85 ESE  5  6 3 1         1219  SE 12 12058 P
01/20-19 94 53 28 24100 ESE  6  7 2 1         1117  SE 12 11064 P
01/20-20100 57 33 22100 ESE  6  7 2 1         1014 ESE 12 10067 P
01/20-21100 61 39 21100 ESE  5  7 2 1         1097  SE 12 10637 P
01/20-22100 65 45 22100   E  5  8 2 1         1180  SE 10 11169 P
01/20-23100 76 62 22100   E  5  8 2 1         1263 SSE 10 11663 P
01/21-00100 87 79 21100   E  5  8 2 1         1335 ESE  9 11065 P
01/21-01100 98 97 20100   E  5  7 2 1         1407   E  8 10330 P
01/21-02100 98 97 19100   E  5  7 2 1         1479  NE  7  9460 P
01/21-03100 97 95 18100   E  7  7 2 1         1967  NE  9 16249 P
01/21-04100 97 95 18100 ENE  7  7 2 1         2455 NNE 13 25831 P
01/21-05 98100100 19 92  NE  6  6 2 1         2943 NNE 15 37620 P
01/21-06 98100100 18 92 NNE  7  7 2 1         3125 NNE 17 48287  F
01/21-07 98100100 18 88 NNE  7  7 2 1         3308   N 21 59928  F
01/21-08 98100100 16 92   N  9 10 2 1         3491   N 24 72542   G
01/21-09 97100100 17 88   N  9 10 2 1         4033   N 26 91912   G
01/21-10 94100100 20 74   N  9 12 2 1         4576   N 29113460    V
01/21-11 93 73 57 23 65   N 10 15 2 1   A Four Corners low will
track across Colorado on Sunday bringing snow, possibly heavy at
times on Sunday morning through early afternoon.      5118   N
31137186    V 01/21-12 92 73 57 25 60   N 13 17 2 1         5596   N
33162403     E 01/21-13 90 73 57 25 57   N 13 17 2 1         6074
NNW 36189741     E 01/21-14 89 73 57 24 60 NNW 14 20 2 1 6551 NNW
38219198     E 01/21-15 87 73 57 23 59 NNW 14 20 2 1  6049 NNW
39205475     E 01/21-16 82 73 57 21 65 NNW 14 20 2 1   5547 NNW
39191240     E 01/21-17 79 31 10 19 67 NNW 13 17 2 1    5044 NNW
40176491     E 01/21-18 72 31 10 17 70 NNW 13 17 2 1     4589 NNW
39156811     E 01/21-19 58 31 10 16 70  NW 13 17 2 1      4133  NW
38137873    V 01/21-20 51 31 10 16 67  NW 13 17 2 1      3677  NW
38119677    V 01/21-21 49 31 10 16 64  NW 14 20 2 1      3293  NW
39110480    V 01/21-22 44 31 10 17 58 WNW 14 20 2 1      2908 WNW
40100505    V 01/21-23 41  9  2 17 56 WNW 14 20 2 1      2523 WNW 41
89753   G  01/22-00 34  9  2 16 56   W 15 22 2 1      2266 WNW 39
77530   G  01/22-01 19  9  2 15 58   W 15 23 2 1      2010 WNW 38
66008   G  01/22-02 11  9  2 14 58   W 17 26 2 1      1753   W 36
55187  F   01/22-03 13  9  2 15 53   W 18 28 2 1      1692   W 37
54395  F   01/22-04 16  9  2 16 51   W 18 28 2 1      1630   W 38
53518  F   01/22-05 18  3  1 16 48   W 20 28 2 1      1568   W 39
52557  F   01/22-06 19  3  1 16 46   W 20 28 2 1      1539   W 39
52771  F   01/22-07 22  3  1 16 46   W 20 28 3 1      1510   W 40
52940  F   01/22-08 23  3  1 18 44   W 20 28 3 1      1481   W 41
53063  F   01/22-09 26  3  1 21 43   W 21 29 2 1      1863   W 43
69019   G  01/22-10 31  3  1 25 42   W 21 29 2 1      2246 WNW 44
85890   G  01/22-11 33  7  1 28 40   W 22 31 2 1      2629 WNW
45103677    V 01/22-12 35  7  1 31 39   W 22 31 2 1      2869 WNW
45111543    V 01/22-13 40  7  1 32 39   W 22 31 2 1      3109 WNW
44119143    V 01/22-14 42  7  1 32 39   W 22 31 2 1      3349 WNW
44126476    V 01/22-15 45  7  1 31 41   W 16 25 2 1      3277 WNW
43122290    V 01/22-16 52  7  1 28 44   W 15 22 2 1      3204   W
43118169    V 01/22-17 55 10  2 26 46   W 15 22 2 1      3132   W
41114111    V 01/22-18 54 10  2 24 50   W 14 20 2 1      2977   W
41105930    V 01/22-19 52 10  2 23 54   W 13 17 2 1      2823   W 40
98014   G  01/22-20 51 10  2 22 57   W 12 15 2 1      2668   W 39
90362   G  01/22-21 52 10  2 22 57   W 12 15 2 1      3195   W
40110837    V 01/22-22 53 10  2 22 57   W 10 14 2 1      3721   W
41132182    V 01/22-23 54  7  1 22 57   W  9 14 2 1      4248 WNW
41154395     E 01/23-00 53  7  1 22 57   W  9 14 2 1       4337 WNW
41158016     E 01/23-01 52  7  1 21 59   W  9 14 2 1        4427 WNW
43161652     E 01/23-02 51  7  1 21 59   W  9 14 2 1         4516
WNW 43165304     E 01/23-03 48  7  1 20 62   W  9 13 2 1
4258 WNW 40148755    V 01/23-04 41  7  1 19 61   W  8 10 2 1
3999 WNW 38133067    V 01/23-05 37  2  0 19 61   W  8  8 2 1
3741 WNW 37118239    V 01/23-06 37  2  0 21 56   W  8  8 2 1
3895 WNW 36120885    V 01/23-07 36  2  0 23 52   W  8  8 2 1
4050 WNW 35123354    V 01/23-08 36  2  0 26 48   W  8  8 2 1
4204 WNW 35125646    V 01/23-09 35  2  0 29 42   W  8  8 2 1
4946 WNW 33145119    V 01/23-10 34  2  0 32 39   W  8  8 2 1
5689 WNW 33163779     E 01/23-11 34  4  1 34 36   W  8  8 2 1
 6431 WNW 32181626     E 01/23-12 35  4  1 35 35   W  8 8   1
                        01/23-13 37  4  1 35 35   W  8 8   1
                       01/23-14 40  4  1 34 36   W  8 8   1
                      01/23-15 42  4  1 32 39   W  7 7   1
                     01/23-16 44  4  1 30 41 WSW  7 7   1
                    01/23-17 45  2  0 28 44 WSW  7 7   1


KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...ENTREKIN
REQUESTED BY...Carmella LoCascio
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1800645.0/BOU



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