Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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FNUS71 KBOX 151715
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Nantucket Land Bank Smooth Hummocks, 1C north...Nantucket Land Bank
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1215 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EST on November 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
North winds will become northeast at 10 to 15 mph this afternoon.
Partly sunny skies may gradually turn mostly cloudy later today as
some clouds work in from the north. Minimum relative humidity
values will generally range from 60 to 70 percent.

.REST OF TODAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Good (36400 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......5.3, decreasing to 2.1.
Max temperature.....Around 47.
Dewpoint............34.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). A slight chance
                    of sprinkles in the late morning and afternoon.
Min apparent temp...38.
Surface winds.......Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.
Mixing height.......3600-4100 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 16 mph.

TIME (EST)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........57  62  67  72  77  78  79  80  79
Weather cov.....    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  46  47  47  47  47  46  45  43
Dewpoint........33  34  35  35  35  34  34  34  35
RH..............60  63  63  63  63  60  63  65  73
Heat index (F)..40  40  41  41  41  42  41  40  38
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..15  15  14  14  13  12  10  10  9
20 FT wind gust.18  20  20  18  18  18  18  17  15
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE
Surface wnd spd.15  15  14  14  13  12  10  10  9
Surface wnd gst.18  20  20  18  18  18  18  17  15
Mix hgt (kft)...4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.16  16  15  15  14  14  13  13  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100057  56  51  50  45  45  41  41  36
Ceiling (kft)...5.3 5.3 4.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.4

.TONIGHT...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (28000-34200 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......2.0, increasing to 2.5 after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Dewpoint............37, increasing to 40 late.
CWR.................0 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph.
Max humidity........86 percent.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers late.
Min apparent temp...37.
Surface winds.......Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......2700-3600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 14 mph.

TIME (EST)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........78  77  73  68  64  71  78  85  88  90  93  94
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............42  43  42  42  43  42  42  42  42  43  44  44
Dewpoint........35  36  35  36  36  36  36  36  37  38  39  40
RH..............76  76  76  79  76  79  79  79  82  82  82  86
Heat index (F)..37  39  38  38  39  38  38  38  38  38  39  39
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   9
20 FT wind gust.13  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  13
Surface wnd dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Surface wnd spd.8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   8   9
Surface wnd gst.13  10  10  9   9   9   9   9   9   9   10  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.10  9   9   10  10  10  12  12  12  12  12  14
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100032  28  28  31  31  31  34  34  33  31  29  33
Ceiling (kft)...2.2 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5

.THURSDAY...

Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29900-47700 knot-ft).
CEILING (KFT).......15, decreasing to 6.0 early in the morning,
                    then decreasing to 1.5 late in the morning,
                    decreasing to 1.0, decreasing to 0.8,
                    increasing to 2.0 late.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Dewpoint............41, increasing to 47 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent, increasing to 100 percent, then
                    decreasing to 83 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers
                    early in the morning, then showers in the late
                    morning and afternoon. A chance of
                    thunderstorms late.
Max apparent temp...45.
Surface winds.......Southwest winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to
                    around 33 mph.
Mixing height.......1400-2600 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 24 mph, increasing to 25 to 28
                    mph early in the afternoon, then becoming west
                    24 to 28 mph late.

TIME (EST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........95     97     100    99     95     90
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                                   CHANCE
CWR.............0      100    100    100    80     80
Temp............45     47     50     50     50     49
Dewpoint........40     43     47     48     49     49
RH..............82     86     89     93     96     100
Heat index (F)..40     42     45     44     44     43
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 12  SE 15  SE 17  S 17   SW 16
20 ft wind gust.16     20     23     30     29     21
Surface wind....SE 9   SE 12  SE 15  SE 17  S 17   SW 16
Surface wnd gst.16     20     23     30     29     21
Mix hgt (ft)....2600   2200   2000   1700   1500   1400
Transport wind..SE 15  SE 18  SE 22  SE 25  S 26   W 24
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100033     36     37     37     35     30
Ceiling (kft)...15     6.0    1.0    0.8    0.8    0.8

$$
Forecaster...Dunten
Requested by...T. Parker Schuerman
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1718849.0/BOX
.EMAIL tschuerman@nantucketlandbank.org



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