Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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341
FNUS71 KCTP 300115
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for SGL 46 Middle Creek Kettle...PA Game Commission
National Weather Service State College PA
915 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2200 EDT on March 29.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure will yield dry conditions tonight and early Thursday. A storm
approaching from the Ohio Valley will bring showers later in the day on
Thursday to the northwest half of the state. More widespread showers and
cooler temperatures are expected Thursday night and Friday. At least a half
of an inch up to an inch of rain is possible Before Friday evening. A warm
up is then in store over the weekend.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 33.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph late in the
                    evening...becoming light and variable.
Mixing height.......200-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5...or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........0   0   8   13  18  22  23  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............45  43  41  40  39  37  36  35
RH..............55  57  62  64  67  72  69  72
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   3   2   2   2   2
20 FT wind gust.            5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Transp wind dir.N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   7   6   5   5   5
Haines index....5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds...becoming southeast
                    around 5 mph early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1900 ft AGL...increasing to 2500-3300 ft
                    AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 13 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........31  36  41  46  49  54  58  64  68  72  77  81
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............35  34  36  38  41  44  46  47  49  51  52  51
RH..............72  75  69  64  57  51  49  47  44  42  41  44
20 FT wind dir..N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   4   4   4   4
20 FT wind gust.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.2
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.6   7   8   8   7   6   6   5   6   8   10  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain likely early in
                    the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......1100-3000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........83  87  89  91  92  92  93  95  96  96  97  97
Weather cov.....        LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............50  48  47  46  45  45  44  44  43  42  42  41
RH..............48  51  56  58  60  62  65  65  67  73  73  79
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..4   4   4   4   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 2.6 2.2 1.9 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.13  13  13  14  16  17  17  17  17  16  15  14
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (95-100 percent). Rain.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......700-1000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 13 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........2...or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........97  98  99  99  99  99  99  100 100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............40  40  41  42  43  45  46  47  47  48  49  48
RH..............82  85  82  82  82  79  79  79  83  80  77  83
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Transp wind dir.SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  15  16  17  17  17  16  15  14  14  13  13
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Watson
Requested by...Steve Ferreri
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705510.0/CTP
.EMAIL Aferreri@pa.gov



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