Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 231448
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Kerr Fire...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
848 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 0700 MDT on May 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Northwest winds are expected to increase this morning on the
back side of an upper low dropping down into the midwest. Temperatures
today will be similar to yesterday but drier air has started moving in
and relative humidities will be falling into the lower teens.  A shift
in the winds is expected tomorrow morning as an upper ridge moves
over the area allowing temperatures to increase about 5 to 7 degrees
and winds to shift to the west.  As ridge moves east of area, strong
west-southwest winds will increase on Thursday and create critical
fire weather conditions.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 8 to 16 mph
                    with gusts to around 30 mph around noon.
Mixing height.......8400 ft AGL increasing to 11400 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 24 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (774500 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (250500 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      10     10     5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............55     62     67     71     73     72
RH..............29     20     16     13     12     12
20 ft wind......NW 3   NW 6   NW 9   NW 11  NW 13  NW 13
20 ft wind gust.5      10     20     25     30     25
Mix hgt (ft)....8400   8400   8400   11400  11400  11400
Transport wind..NW 9   NW 20  NW 24  NW 25  NW 25  NW 25
Haines index....4      3      3      5      6      5
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph in the evening becoming light.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........5      5      5      5      5      10
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............71     65     63     58     55     53
RH..............10     13     20     26     33     37
20 ft wind......NW 14  NW 11  NW 7   NW 5   NW 3   NW 3
20 ft wind gust.25     20     15     10     5      5
Haines index....5      4      4      4      5      5

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........8 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 7 to 12 mph in
                    the morning.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL increasing to 13300 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 19 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (100800 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (222200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         4         2         2
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............52        64        73        79
RH..............41        18        10        8
20 FT wind......NW 3G5    W 6G10    W 8G15    W 11G20
Mix hgt (ft)....7600      7600      13300     13300
Transport wind..NW 2      NW 8      W 17      W 20
Haines index....4         3         5         6
Vent Rate.......VYGD      VYGD      EXNT      EXNT

$$
Forecaster...GRZYWACZ
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1709304.14/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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