Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 142025
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Women in Wildland Fire Admin Site...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
225 PM MDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 MDT on October 14.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions remain in the Gila Region ahead of a backdoor cold
front that will move through the area late tonight into early
Sunday morning. Minimum relative humidities remain in the upper
teens and lower 20s. West winds persist through the afternoon and
will shift to the east overnight with speeds between 5 to 10 mph
and gusts up to 15 mph. Conditions after the frontal passage will
deteriorate the vent rates into the poor category for the next
two days.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8700-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 17 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent to Fair (174100-55800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........2      2
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0
LAL.............1      1
Temp............77     76
RH..............13     13
20 ft wind......W 15   W 9
20 ft wind gust.30     15
Mix hgt (ft)....8700   4700
Transport wind..W 23   W 13
Haines index....5      4
Vent Rate.......EXNT   Fair

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 28.
Max humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200-500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........1      1      1      4      4      4
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     58     46     39     36     31
RH..............14     23     40     52     56     60
20 ft wind......NW 8   NW 8   N 8    N 7    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    500    200    200    200
Transport wind..NW 8   N 7    N 8    N 7    N 7    N 7
Haines index....4      4      4      5      5      5
Vent Rate.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL increasing to 7100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest 5 to
                    6 mph late in the morning, then shifting to the
                    south around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........1         1         0         0
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............29        43        71        77
RH..............60        41        16        14
20 FT wind......NE 6G10   E 5G10    SE 6G10   SE 7G15
Mix hgt (ft)....2700      2700      7100      7100
Transport wind..N 7       E 8       S 5       W 5
Haines index....4         3         2         4
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...CRESPO
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717219.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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