Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 240106
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Corral...Gila National Forest
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
706 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 MDT on June 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor cool front will move through from the east just before
midnight...shifting winds to the east with strong gusts expected
through Saturday.  Thunderstorms will also be on the increase and stronger
Saturday and sunday as enhanced instability aloft is generated over the burn
site...with additional moisture left in the area after tonight`s front.
In addition to lightning...locally heavy rain with rapid runoff and hail...
are also expected with storms this weekend.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms early. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................3.
Min temperature.....57-59.
Max humidity........84-89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25
                    mph shifting to the southeast 16 to 18 mph with
                    gusts to around 40 mph after midnight. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......13300 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 6 mph shifting to the east 7 to 8 mph
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2300
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or high potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Sky (%).........56     56     56     56     56     56
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
Chc of pcpn (%).20     20     20     20     20     20
LAL.............3      3      3      3      3      3
Temp............87     77     69     62     58     58
RH..............12     18     26     39     51     70
20 ft wind......SW 9   SW 11  W 10   W 13   SE 18  SE 18
20 ft wind gust.20     20     20     25     35     35
Mix hgt (ft)....13300  13300  13300  300    300    300
Transport wind..W 5    S 2    SE 7   E 9    E 7    E 6
Haines index....6      6      5      4      3      4
Vent Rate.......GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....83-88.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the east
                    12 to 13 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to
                    35 mph decreasing to 25 mph early in the
                    morning, then increasing to 30 mph late in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......9600 ft AGL increasing to 16100 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the west 9
                    to 10 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (164200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........53     53     53     71     71     71
Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD NUMRUS NUMRUS NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     60     60     60
LAL.............3      3      3      5      5      5
Temp............58     67     78     84     86     86
RH..............86     61     40     32     28     30
20 ft wind......SE 17  SE 13  S 10   S 10   S 13   SE 14
20 ft wind gust.35     25     20     20     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....9600   9600   9600   16100  16100  16100
Transport wind..E 6    SE 6   S 6    W 6    SW 12  SW 10
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................5.
Min temperature.....56-57.
Max humidity........96-100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......400-1400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 8 mph shifting to the south 5 to
                    6 mph early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........73        73        73        73
Weather cov.....NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS    NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).60        60        60        60
LAL.............5         5         5         5
Temp............84        73        64        56
RH..............41        57        74        96
20 FT wind......NE 12G20  SE 10G20  SE 7G15   S 10G20
Mix hgt (ft)....1400      1400      400       400
Transport wind..NW 6      SE 16     S 7       SW 7
Haines index....4         4         4         3
Vent Rate.......POOR      POOR      POOR      POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................3 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....80-83.
Min humidity........33-36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL increasing to 12700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 11 to 12 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 24 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (35500 knot-ft) increasing to good (89000
                    knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........60           60           70
Weather cov.....ISOLTD       ISOLTD       NUMRUS
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ISOLTD       ISOLTD       NUMRUS
Chc of pcpn (%).20           20           60
LAL.............3            3            5
Temp............56           74           81
RH..............99           48           35
20 FT wind......S 6G10       S 6G15       S 8G15
Mix hgt (ft)....4900         4900         12700
Transport wind..SE 1         S 9          W 6
Haines index....3            3            4
Vent Rate.......POOR         POOR         GOOD

$$
Forecaster...TRIPOLI
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1711287.4/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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