Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FNUS75 KGJT 240624
FWSGJT

Spot Forecast for Escalante Piles, (Old Guard Unit)...GMUG NF, Ouray RD
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1124 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on February 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Instability showers will continue over and around
the fire site today which will result in enhanced mixing and
excellent smoke dispersal. Inversions form tonight resulting in
low level inversions and poor mixing beginning this evening.
Early sunshine will help mix out the nocturnal inversion Saturday
allowing mixing and transport to produce very good smoke dispersal
during the late morning and afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Scattered snow showers.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 3 to 5 MPH...increasing to 10 to 15 MPH
                    by 1300.
Smoke dispersal.....Good...becoming excellent in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......Rising to 10700 ft AGL by 1400.
Transport winds.....West 15 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated snow showers
                    in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 MPH...decreasing and
                    becoming downslope/downvalley 3 to 5 mph
                    by 2000.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good...decreasing to poor (37000 knot-ft)
                    by 2100.
Mixing height.......9300 ft AGL...decreasing to 4300 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 10 MPH.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%)...then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (60-70%).
Wind (20 ft)........Downslope/downvalley 3 to 5 mph through 1100...
                    then becoming southwest 5 to 10 MPH by 1300.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (36000 knot-ft)...increasing to very good
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......rising to 6400 ft AGL early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 20 MPH.

$$

Forecaster...Norv Larson
Requested by...Thad Chavez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1702731.0/GJT



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