Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FNUS75 KGJT 191439
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR EAST CABEZON RX...SOUTHERN UTE AGENCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
839 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON APRIL 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OPEN UP AND TRACK ACROSS
ARIZONA TODAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF THIS DISTURBANCE HAS CARRIED DEEPER MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. WHILE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE NEARBY DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE BETTER
INSTABILITY. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.TODAY (UNTIL SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    THROUGH THE DAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR...BECOMING GOOD IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    BETTER MIXING NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......8000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT (AFTER SUNSET)...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE
                    EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (7600 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL AROUND 2100...THEN LAL 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......QUICKLY DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 MPH.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%). ISOLATED SHOWERS
                    AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-63 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
                    IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (46200 KNOT-FT).
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 9000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 7 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...JESSE RAMIREZ
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140418.EASTC.02/GJT



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