Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FNUS74 KHUN 301552 RRA
FWSHUN

Spot Forecast for Grindstone...USFS
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
734 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National
Weather Service.

.DISCUSSION...

A strong storm system currently moving across the Mid Mississippi
Valley region will bring a cold front across the burn area this
evening. The approach of this front will bring numerous showers
and thunderstorms across the region, especially tonight. Some of
the storms could become strong to severe in intensity, with
damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, large hail, very heavy rainfall,
and frequent lightning.

Before then - at the present, the latest radar indicated a line
of weakening showers approaching the burn area from the southwest
and west. This activity could bring a trace to maybe a few
hundredths of an inch of rain this morning and gusty winds.
Otherwise, a large area of high altitude clouds will continue
across the region. If these clouds erode more later this morning
and early afternoon, high temperatures could rise a bit higher
than our current forecast high of 76. Minimum afternoon relative
humidity values should fall to around 60 percent. Very good mixing
and smoke dispersion rates are expected, with surface winds from
the south 5-10 mph, and transport winds increasing to 33 mph from
the south this afternoon. Winds will become stronger and erratic
in and near showers and thunderstorms. Mixing heights this morning
around 1000 ft AGL will increase to around 4500 ft AGL this
afternoon.


.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Showers and
                    thunderstorms likely...mainly in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 76.
Min humidity........60 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the late morning
                    and afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late.
CWR.................10 percent...increasing to 70 percent.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0900...then 2 until 1000...then 3 until
                    1500...then 4.
Mixing height.......800-2600 ft AGL...increasing to 3400-4700 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph...increasing to 24 to 33 mph
                    late in the morning.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............70  71  72  73  74  75  75  74
RH..............73  71  68  66  64  62  62  64
20 FT WIND DIR..180 180 190 190 190 190 190 190
20 FT WIND SPD..7   7   7   9   9   8   8   8
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.6 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.4 3.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.170 180 190 200 200 200 200 200
TRANSP WIND SPD.21  24  28  31  32  33  33  32
DISPERSION IDX..23  53  72  89  95  134 130 110
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............30  30  30  40  50  60  70  70
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  30  40  50  60  70  70
LAL.............3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent)...then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Thunderstorms in
                    the evening. Showers. Thunderstorms likely
                    after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after midnight.
CWR.................70 percent...increasing to 80 percent in the
                    evening...then increasing to 90 percent in the
                    evening...decreasing to 80 percent in the
                    evening...decreasing to 60 percent...decreasing
                    to 50 percent...decreasing to 40
                    percent...decreasing to 30 percent...decreasing
                    to 20 percent.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
LAL.................4 until 1900...then 5 until 2400...then 4 until
                    0100...then 3 until 0400...then 1.
Mixing height.......100-2000 ft AGL...decreasing to 0-200 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southwest 24 to 33 mph...becoming west 14 to 20
                    mph after midnight.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TEMP............72  70  67  65  63  62  61  60  59  57  55  53
RH..............66  68  75  81  84  87  87  87  87  86  90  89
20 FT WIND DIR..190 190 200 200 210 220 230 240 250 250 260 250
20 FT WIND SPD..7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   2
20 FT WIND GUST.10  10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.200 200 200 190 190 210 250 270 270 270 270 260
TRANSP WIND SPD.32  31  32  33  33  30  24  20  17  16  15  14
DISPERSION IDX..79  31  0   0   0   0   16  13  8   7   7   6
LVORI...........1   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
CWR.............70  80  80  90  90  80  60  50  40  30  20  20
CHC OF PCPN (%).70  80  80  90  90  80  60  50  40  30  20  20
LAL.............4   5   5   5   5   5   4   3   3   3   1   1

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon...then becoming
                    light late.
CWR.................10 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Mixing height.......0-1600 ft AGL...increasing to 4400-5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph.
LVORI...............3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............52  52  54  56  60  63  66  69  71  73  73  72
RH..............89  86  80  74  64  58  52  47  44  41  41  42
20 FT WIND DIR..250 250 260 260 260 260 260 260 270 270 270 270
20 FT WIND SPD..2   2   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   3
20 FT WIND GUST.5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.1 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.0 4.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.260 250 260 260 270 270 270 270 270 280 280 280
TRANSP WIND SPD.13  13  15  17  20  18  17  15  14  14  13  12
DISPERSION IDX..6   6   7   8   9   75  84  80  79  81  73  60
LVORI...........5   4   4   4   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
CWR.............10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...Boyd
Requested by...Kerry
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705530.0/HUN
.EMAIL kerryclark@fs.fed.us



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