Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 111132
FWSILM

SPOT FORECAST FOR SALTERS LAKE...STATE PARKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
732 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 11.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
COMBINED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR 1 MORE DAY DUE
TO RIDGING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO STALL EITHER ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THRU THIS
WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH ATLEAST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.

WIND PROFILE ANALYSIS/FIRE CONTROL OVER FLAT TERRAIN IS FAVORABLE.

FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT...LOW.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). AREAS OF FOG
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN PATCHY FOG EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5
                    TO 6 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1800 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5900 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX ADI.............61.
MAX LVORI...........10.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (0-52094 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............37     41     44
WEATHER COV.........
WEATHER TYPE........NONE   NONE   NONE
TSTM COV............
TEMP................86     89     88
RH..................61     56     58
20 FT WIND..........W 5    SW 5   SW 5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     15     15
MIX HGT (FT)........3900   5600   5700
TRANSPORT WIND......W 10   W 9    SW 7
LVORI...............3      1      3
ADI.................53     59     60
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...39     52     41

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). A SLIGHT CHANCE
                    OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
                    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 72.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN
                    BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900-3600 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 100-500 FT AGL
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5 TO 14 MPH.
MAX ADI.............40.
MAX LVORI...........7.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO FAIR (804-33925 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).............48     51     53     55     57     58
WEATHER COV.........S CHC                              S CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ISOLTD                             ISOLTD
TEMP................86     81     79     77     76     75
RH..................63     75     80     85     88     90
20 FT WIND..........SW 5   S 3    S 3    S 3    SW 4   SW 4
20 FT WIND GUST.....10     5      5      5      5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........3600   500    100    300    300    200
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 9   S 14   S 8    S 5    SW 6   SW 5
LVORI...............3      3      4      6      5      7
ADI.................40     10     7      9      9      8
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...34     7      1      1      1      1

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1900 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2300-3200 FT
                    AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT...THEN BECOMING SOUTH
                    5 TO 6 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MAX ADI.............39.
MAX LVORI...........9.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (459 MPH-FT).

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
SKY (%).............59     76     78     79     80     82
WEATHER COV.........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE........RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV............ISOLTD CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
TEMP................74     72     78     83     83     83
RH..................94     96     80     69     67     68
20 FT WIND..........SW 3   SW 2   W 2    N 1    NE 2   NE 2
20 FT WIND GUST.....5      5
MIX HGT (FT)........200    300    1300   2300   2700   3200
TRANSPORT WIND......SW 5   SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   S 5    S 5
LVORI...............8      6      4      4      3      4
ADI.................7      7      12     26     39     24
VRATE MPH-FT/1000...1      1      7      12     12     14

$$
FORECASTER...HOEHLER
REQUESTED BY...THOMAS CRATE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20140911.SALTE.01/ILM






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