Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FNUS72 KILM 151513
FWSILM

Spot Forecast for Little Island...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service WILMINGTON NC
1113 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on August 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...or if you have questions
or concerns about this forecast...contact the National Weather
Service in Wilmington at 910-762-1374.

.DISCUSSION...
The sea breeze will push through the fire site early this afternoon
with isolated showers and thunderstorms, followed by a wind shift to
the S/SW. A second round of thunderstorms is possible tonight,
with areas of fog likely towards Wednesday morning.

Summertime heat and humidity will build and should peak
through Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will become
fewer in number but heat index values may approach 105. Showers and
thunderstorms will increase during the weekend as a cold front
approaches from the north. This front may actually push to our south
early next week as cooler high pressure builds from the north.

Wind profile analysis/fire control over flat terrain is Favorable.

Fog potential for tonight...Moderate.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms early in the
                    afternoon, then a chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon. A slight chance
                    of showers and thunderstorms late.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds, becoming southwest 6
                    to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 10 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......42205 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........3.
Max ADI.............38.

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........55  58  60  59  57  55
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Temp............88  89  90  91  90  89
RH..............71  66  63  62  62  64
CHC Pcpn (%)....20  30  30  30  30  20
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   8   9   7   5
20 FT wind gust.5       10  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 4.0 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.7
Trans Wnd Dir...W   W   W   W   SW  SW
Trans Wnd Spd...10  8   7   7   8   8
Haines Index....3   3   3   3   3   4
VR MPH-FT*1000..42  33  24  24  24  22
Stability.......C   D   D   D   D   D
LVORI...........3   2   2   3   3   3
ADI.............38  23  18  18  19  18
Aparnt Tmp (F)..100 101 102 103 102 100
Sfc pres (in)...985 985 981 981 981 981

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). A chance showers and
                    thunderstorms after midnight. Areas of fog late.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 76.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening, becoming light and variable. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Min Mixing Hgt......300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 8 mph.
Min Vent Rate.......459 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Min ADI.............1.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........55  55  54  55  56  56  57  57  58  56  55  53
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH ARS
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RNF FOG
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH
Temp............87  85  83  82  81  80  79  79  78  78  77  76
RH..............68  75  80  83  87  90  92  93  95  96  98  100
CHC Pcpn (%)....30  30  40  30  30  30  30  30  20  20  20  20
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  S   S   SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   2
20 FT wind gust.        5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Trans Wnd Dir...SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Trans Wnd Spd...8   7   6   6   5   5   5   3   3   3   2   2
Haines Index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VR MPH-FT*1000..16  10  4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   0
Stability.......D   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   F   F   F   F
LVORI...........4   5   6   6   8   8   8   9   10  10  10  10
ADI.............15  5   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   1   1   1
Aparnt Tmp (F)..97  95  91  89  87  85  83  79  78  78  77  76
Sfc pres (in)...981 981 984 984 984 984 984 984 984 984 984 984

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Areas of fog
                    early in the morning. A chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms late in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 92.
Min humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light and variable winds. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Max Mixing Hgt......5300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....North 1 to 8 mph.
Max Vent Rate.......44275 mph-ft.
Max LVORI...........10.
Max ADI.............36.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........55     59     52     65     78     75
Weather cov.....AREAS         S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....FOG    NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC         S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............76     78     86     91     92     92
RH..............100    93     74     63     62     63
CHC Pcpn (%)....20     10     20     30     40     30
20 ft wind......NW 2   NW 2   N 3    NW 2   SW 1   SW 2
20 ft wind gust.              5
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    4000   5300   5200   5100
Transport wind..NW 1   NW 2   NW 7   NW 8   NW 6   N 2
Haines Index....3      3      3      3      4      4
VR MPH-FT*1000..0      1      28     44     29     10
Stability.......F      C      C      C      C      C
LVORI...........10     7      3      1      2      3
ADI.............1      2      26     35     23     8
Aparnt Tmp (F)..76     78     97     105    106    105
Sfc pres (in)...29.84  29.91  29.91  29.91  29.90  29.90

$$
Forecaster...Weiss
Requested by...Angie Carl
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1714424.0/ILM
.EMAIL acarl@tnc.org



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