Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FNUS74 KLZK 272340
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for Dallas Mtn...USFS
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
640 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Forecast is based on request time of 1900 CDT on July 27.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...

Expect mixing heights to keep decreasing this evening...with winds
near any thunderstorms becoming variable and gusty at times.
Moisture levels will remain high...especially overnight as temps
drop.

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........93 at request...Min 75.
RH..................52 percent at request...Max 90 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 17 mph.
Stability class.....D.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds southwest at 10 mph at
                    request...otherwise Southwest winds 5 to 10
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Dispersion..........46 decreasing to 22 early in the evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at request...max 5.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4800 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 6416 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............93  90  88  86  84  81  79  78  77  77  76
RH..............52  56  59  63  68  73  77  79  85  85  87
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Eye lvl wnd spd.6   6   6   6   6   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  16  14  13  13  14  15  15  15  14  13
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  30  30

.FRIDAY...

Temperature.........Max 88.
RH..................Min 57 percent.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Transport winds.....North 8 to 17 mph decreasing to around 6 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LVORI...............1 early in the morning.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Dispersion..........13 increasing to 35 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 40 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 27 early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 15.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....Northwest winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 5900 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 7560 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Temp............75  75  77  79  81  83  85  86  87  88  88  88
RH..............90  90  82  77  72  67  63  63  61  57  57  57
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
Transp wind spd.10  8   14  16  17  17  16  14  12  8   6   6
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40  40

$$
Forecaster...W Gilmore
Requested by...Tim Nutley
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1713470.1/LZK
.EMAIL tnutley@fs.fed.us



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