Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 041230
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR WUI SW5...SEMINOLE TRIBE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EDT ON MAY 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (305) 229-4522, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWEST/WEST WIND FLOW OVER THE
BURN SITE. THERE IS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BURN SITE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE OVER THE BURN
SITE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING
                    CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
                    IN THE MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE
                    DAY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH
                    WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
                    AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0800...THEN 2 UNTIL 1100...THEN 3 UNTIL
                    1300...THEN 4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2100 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3000-3900 FT
                    AGL EARLY.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH...INCREASING TO WEST 17
                    TO 24 MPH EARLY.
DISPERSION INDEX....5...INCREASING TO 60.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM
SKY (%).........50  50  84  84  84  98  98  98  98  98  98  98
WEATHER COV.....SCT SCT NUM NUM WID WID WID WID WID WID WID NUM
WEATHER TYPE....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV........ISO ISO SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT
TEMP............75  77  79  80  81  83  84  84  84  81  78  76
RH..............89  84  79  74  70  66  63  63  63  69  74  79
20 FT WIND DIR..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT WIND DIR..200 200 210 210 210 210 220 230 240 240 250 260
20 FT WIND SPD..3   5   6   8   10  11  11  11  10  10  9   8
20 FT WIND GUST.5   10  10  15  20  25  25  25  20  20  20  15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 2.1 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.0
MIXNG WIND DIR..SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
MIXNG WIND SPD..10  14  17  20  23  24  24  23  21  18  16  14
DISPERSION IDX..15  31  40  49  58  64  63  60  55  43  31  12
LVORI...........4   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   4
CHC OF PCPN (%).30  30  70  70  100 100 100 100 100 100 100 60
LAL.............2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT)...THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT). WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
                    NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 13 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND
                    ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2000...THEN 3 UNTIL 2300...THEN 2 UNTIL
                    0200...THEN 1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2900 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300-800 FT AGL
                    IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 18 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 8 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE MORNING.
DISPERSION INDEX....43...DECREASING TO 9.
LVORI...............4.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 84.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 13 MPH.
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-1400 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4900-5400 FT
                    AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 9 TO 18 MPH...INCREASING TO 21 TO 22 MPH
                    LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....10...INCREASING TO 83.
LVORI...............3.

$$
FORECASTER...BAXTER
REQUESTED BY...MIKE LIGHTSEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1600737.0/MFL



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