Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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556
FNUS74 KMOB 261107
FWSMOB

Spot Forecast for OpenAir 1...USFS Conecuh
National Weather Service Mobile AL
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 26.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...High (75+) Dispersion Indices Expected Over Interior Portions of
Southeast Mississippi and Southwest Alabama This Afternoon...

.DISCUSSION...Southerly flow will increase over the area today
between surface high pressure over Florida and ahead of a cold
front approaching the region from the west. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Thursday
morning as the front approaches the area and gradually weakens.
Afternoon relative humidity will remain above critical levels with
generally good to good dispersions expected today and Thursday.

Fog Potential And Other Remarks...Patchy fog development with
visibilities down to around 1 mile is possible during the late night
and early morning hours through Friday morning.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog early in the
                    morning.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-2400 ft AGL increasing to 3500-4400 ft AGL
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...396-732 meters AGL increasing to 1067-1341
                    meters AGL in the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph increasing to 17 to 18 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds m/s.South 3 to 7 meters/second increasing to around
                    8 meters/second in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....12 increasing to 58.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....2.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  18  16  14  12  11  13  16  19  22
Weather cov.....PTY
Weather type....FOG
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............64  70  75  78  80  82  83  84  84  83
RH..............84  68  58  52  49  46  44  43  43  46
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..5   7   8   9   10  11  12  13  13  12
20 FT wind gust.    10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.4 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.7   12  15  16  17  17  17  18  18  18
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).3   5   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion idx..12  33  53  59  62  59  57  56  55  59
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 0100, then 9-15 strikes.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......2500-4200 ft AGL decreasing to 1000-1300 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Mixing height (m)...762-1280 meters AGL decreasing to 305-396
                    meters AGL early in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Transport winds m/s.South 7 to 8 meters/second.
Dispersion index....61 decreasing to 16.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....4.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........25  26  30  39  48  57  66  70  71  74  77  80
Weather cov.....                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............80  77  74  71  70  69  69  70  70  70  70  70
RH..............51  58  66  76  84  90  93  93  97  97  97  97
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..11  9   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 2.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2
Mix hgt (km)....1.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  17  17  16  16  16  15  15  15  15  15  16
Trans wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Trans spd (m/s).8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Dispersion idx..61  17  13  14  18  16  16  16  15  14  14  14
LVORI...........1   2   3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning, then
                    showers and thunderstorms likely in the
                    morning. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 0700, then 16-25 strikes
                    until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200-2800 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4500 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height (m)...366-853 meters AGL increasing to 1036-1372
                    meters AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 17 mph.
Transport winds m/s.Southwest 6 to 8 meters/second.
Dispersion index....18 increasing to 57.
LVORI...............3.
Stability class.....3.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........83  84  81  76  71  66  63  58  57  56  55  53
Weather cov.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).30  60  60  60  60  60  60  30  30  30  30  30
LAL.............3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............71  72  73  74  76  79  82  84  86  86  85  83
RH..............93  90  87  84  79  72  65  61  57  55  55  59
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  20  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.5
Mix hgt (km)....0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  17  16  14  13  14  15  16  16  15  14  13
Trans wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Trans spd (m/s).8   8   7   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   6   6
Dispersion idx..14  22  24  26  28  35  44  53  56  59  60  57
LVORI...........5   5   4   4   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1

$$
Forecaster...13
Requested by...Adam Kunce
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1707757.0/MOB
.EMAIL akunce@fs.fed.us



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