Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FNUS73 KPAH 151300
FWSPAH

Spot Forecast for Pennant Bar Summer Burn...USFS
National Weather Service Paducah KY
800 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on September 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
As a ridge aloft takes hold and southerly flow commences, smoke
dispersion will be the best over southwest Illinois and southeast
Missouri over the next couple of days. Rain-free conditions should
prevail through the weekend. Expect warmer than normal temperatures
and moderate afternoon humidity levels into next week.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog early
                    in the morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........82 at ignition...Max 87.
RH..................61 percent at ignition...Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1600 ft AGL increasing to 5100-6400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0
Temp............82     85     87     85
RH..............61     53     48     51
20 FT wind dir..S      S      S      S
20 FT wind spd..6      6      6      6
20 FT wind gust.       10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....3900   5900   6300   5100
Transp wind dir.S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.8      8      8      8
Haines index....4      3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Min 65.
RH..................Max 97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......2900-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 0-1900 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 8 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............83     77     72     71     70     67
RH..............55     67     81     81     84     90
20 FT wind dir..S      S      SE     SE     SE     SE
20 FT wind spd..5      3      2      2      2      2
20 FT wind gust.       5
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   1900   300    100    200    200
Transp wind dir.S      SE     SE     SE     SE     SE
Transp wind spd.8      7      5      5      5      5
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Temperature.........Max 88.
RH..................Min 49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-900 ft AGL increasing to 5700-7000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............65     70     81     85     87     88
RH..............97     87     67     57     50     48
20 FT wind dir..SE     SE     S      S      S      SE
20 FT wind spd..1      2      3      5      5      6
20 FT wind gust.              5
Mix hgt (ft)....BLW100 900    3200   5800   7000   6500
Transp wind dir.SE     SE     S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.5      7      10     8      6      6
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...WFO PADUCAH
Requested by...Jason Rose
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715893.0/PAH
.EMAIL jnrose@fs.fed.us



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