Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FNUS74 KSJT 160224
FWSSJT

Spot Forecast for Moseley...private
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
924 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on October 16.
Please contact our office at 325-944-3030 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry 20 ft north winds of 6 to 8 mph will continue overnight an
Monday morning...becoming northeast Monday afternoon as surface
high pressure builds in. The minimum temperature tonight is
expected around 46 degrees with a maximum relative humidity of 75
percent; with a minimum RH Monday afternoon around 23 percent.
Scattered mid level clouds will move over tonight, but the air in
the low levels is dry and rain is not forecast until the weekend.
Winds Monday night will be light and terrain influenced. A
southeast wind around 5 mph is expected Tuesday as surface high
pressure moves into East Texas.


...Sunday Afternoon Fire Weather Discussion....
Fire weather conditions will remain low across the region over the
next 7 days. The gusty north winds will gradually weaken to below
10 mph this evening. Cooler temperatures and dewpoints in the 40s
will keep relative humidity values above 30 percent. Minimum
relative humidity values on Monday through Wednesday will drop to
20 to 25 percent, but with the cooler temperatures and light 20
foot winds, fire danger will remain low. By Thursday, light
southerly winds will bring low level moisture to the area.
Dewpoint values on Thursday and Friday will rise into the upper
40s to low 50s, with relative humidity values remaining above 30
percent.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......100-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2500-3600 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........North 7 to 14 mph increasing to 10 to 17 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (500-41400 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........1      1      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............45     54     62     70     73
RH..............73     48     33     25     23
20 ft wind......N 6    N 7    N 8    N 8    NE 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1500   2500   3300   3600
Mixing wind......N 10   NE 17  NE 15  N 14   N 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10005      22     33     39     40

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......100-1400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 2 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to poor (200-9500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      0      0      0      0      0
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............72     61     56     52     51     49
RH..............25     36     43     50     54     61
20 ft wind......NE 6   NE 5   NE 3   E 3    E 2    E 2
20 ft wind gust.10            5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....1400   200    100    100    100    100
Mixing wind......NE 8   NE 5   NE 3   NW 2   NW 2   NW 3
Haines index....4      4      4      4      4      5
SDspl kt-ft/100010     1      0      0      0      0

.TUESDAY...

Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......100-1700 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing winds........West around 5 mph shifting to the southeast 3
                    to 5 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (200-15100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Temp............47     46     56     64     73     77
RH..............68     71     47     35     26     23
20 ft wind......SE 2   SE 3   SE 3   S 5    S 6    SE 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5             10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....100    400    1200   2300   3200   3800
Mixing wind......W 5    W 5    SE 5   S 3    S 3    S 5
Haines index....5      4      4      4      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10000      2      5      7      10     15

$$
Forecaster...DECKER
Requested by...mark moseley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717262.0/SJT



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