Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 222233
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

CONVECTIVE STORMS IN THE TANANA BASIN PRODUCED SOME SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS LAST WEEK LEADING TO RISES ON MANY STREAMS DRAINING
THE YUKON-TANANA UPLANDS AS WELL AS THE TANANA RIVER.  RAIN HAS
CONTINUED INTO THIS WEEK AS WELL PUSHING WATER LEVELS HIGHER ONCE
AGAIN. A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHENA RIVER UPSTREAM OF
THE MOOSE CREEK DAM. THE FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT IS OPERATING AND
HELPING TO REGULATE THE FLOW ON THE CHENA RIVER. THE FLOOD ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THROUGH 245 PM AKDT SUNDAY THE 24TH.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADVISORY FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SUMMIT LAKE GLACIER DAMMED LAKE IS RELEASING
INTO THE SALMON RIVER NEAR HYDER. THE RIVER HAS RISEN DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THAT EXTENDED UP
INTO THE GULF WILL BE FLATTENED AND RETROGRADE TO THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW SWINGING THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING AND
INTO THE GULF BY SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THIS
TRANSITION HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP DRAMATICALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL AND NOW ARE RANGING ABOVE
NORMAL. NEEDLESS TO SAY RAIN ENVELOPS MOST OF THIS REGION AND
SPREADS INTO THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AND
REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTH AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WEATHER AND
RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS SEEMS TO
OPEN UP THE STATE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
EVCA2    EIELSON VISITORS CEN PP RG :   1.55
TKLA2    TOKLAT RAWS          PP RG :   1.33
TLDA2    TELIDA RAWS          PC RG :   1.23
KSHA2    KANTISHNA            PC RM :   1.20
WONA2    WONDER LAKE RAWS     PP RG :   1.18
DNLA2    DENALI 27N CRN       PC R2 :   1.17
LCRA2    LITTLE CHENA RIDGE S PP RG :   1.16
DNLA2    DENALI 27N CRN       PC R3 :   1.11
UKKA2    UNALAKLEET SCAN      PC RM :   1.00
PHLA2    PHELAN CREEK NR PAXS PP RG :   0.92
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   0.90
DCSA2    DAVIES CREEK SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.90
MKLA2    MCKINLEY RIVER RAWS  PP RG :   0.81
PPSA2    POWDER PATCH STATION PC RZ :   0.75
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PP RG :   0.73
WICA2    WICKERSHAM DOME NEAR PP RG :   0.71
TRSA2    TWO RIVERS           PC RG :   0.71
MSOA2    MUNSON RIDGE SNOTEL  PC R2 :   0.71
UNCA2    UPPER NOME CREEK     PC RM :   0.70
PMNA2    GALENA RAWS AT POORM PP RG :   0.70
MNFA2    MONAHAN FLAT SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.70
DCSA2    DAVIES CREEK SNOTEL  PC R2 :   0.69
UNCA2    UPPER NOME CREEK     PC R2 :   0.65
SALA2    SALCHA RIVER NEAR SA PP RG :   0.65
BKSA2    BLAIR LAKES RAWS     PP RG :   0.65
TETA2    JATAHMUND LAKE RAWS  PP RG :   0.64
NESA2    NENANA SNOTEL        PC R2 :   0.63
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PC RG :   0.63
CRHA2    CHENA RIVER BLW HUNT PP RG :   0.63
CHTA2    CHATANIKA RAWS       PC RG :   0.63
TTLA2    TOTATLANIKA RAWS     PC RG :   0.62
ECEA2    EAGLECREST TOP CWOP  PP RZ :   0.62
NESA2    NENANA SNOTEL        PC RM :   0.60
LCRA2    LITTLE CHENA RIDGE S PC RM :   0.60
INPA2    INDIAN PASS SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.60
FOFA2    FAIRBANKS FIELD OFFI PC RM :   0.60
TRSA2    TWO RIVERS           PP RG :   0.59
KLAA2    CHELLE LAKE NR GAKON PC RG :   0.59
GGLA2    GATES GLACIER        PP RG :   0.59
PAOR     NORTHWAY AIRPORT     PP RZ :   0.58
SLRA2    SALCHA RIVER RAWS    PC RG :   0.57
RENA2    RENEE RAWS           PP RG :   0.57

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE EXCEPT IN THE
EASTERN INTERIOR WHERE PROBABILITES ARE NORMAL.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE STATE EXCEPT THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$

ETH



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