Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 202255
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT THU JUL 20 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

A FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5:45 AM AKDT SATURDAY, JULY 22,
FOR THE DELTA RIVER ALONG SPENGLER ROAD IN THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA.

RECENT AND FORECAST RAIN WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON AFFECTED
NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE RIVERS AND STREAMS EAST OF THE
COLVILLE RIVER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE REST OF ALASKA.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

THE 500 MB PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS A LOW SOUTH OF THE AKPEN...
BRINGING RAIN TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND
AND GULF COAST.  THERE ARE RIDGES INTO THE CENTRAL MAINLAND FROM
WESTERN CANADA AS WELL AS FROM THE BERING... AND A TROUGH INTO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE BRINGING RAIN AND CONVECTIVE STORMS TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.

OVER THE NEXT DAY THE AKPEN LOW WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC... WHILE THE NORTHERN TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL
MOVE EAST INTO CANADA... ALLOWING THE BERING RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE.  OVER THE FOLLOWING DAY THE SOUTHERN LOW
WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BRING RAIN BACK TO THE PANHANDLE...
WHILE THE BERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINLAND... AND THE TAIL OF A FRONT FROM A LOW IN THE ARCTIC
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED 24 HOUR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ENDING AT 4 AM AKDT TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PC RG :  2.76
PEDA2    PEDERSEN LAGOON      PC RG :  2.52
FPKA2    FOURPEAKED RAWS      PC RG :  1.73
CGMA2    CHIGMIT MOUNTAINS    PC RG :  1.43
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC R2 :  1.42
PAWR     WHITTIER             PP RZ :  1.25
PATO     PORTAGE GLACIER      PP RZ :  1.06
NUIA2    FISH CREEK           PC RG :  0.81
PAIG     IGIUGIG              PP RZ :  0.70
FAFA2    PFAFF MINE           PC RG :  0.68
FOJA2    FOURTH OF JULY CREEK PC RP :  0.59
PAIL     ILIAMNA              PP RZ :  0.58
PAVC     KING COVE            PP RZ :  0.53
BOXA2    BOX RIVER RAWS       PC RG :  0.53
PAMD     MIDDLETON ISLAND     PP RZ :  0.52
HRDA2    HARDING ICE FIELD    PC RG :  0.46
CACA2    CANNERY CREEK        PP RZ :  0.46
PAJZ     KOLIGANEK            PP RZ :  0.45
NRDA2    NUYAKUK R            PC RG :  0.44
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC R2 :  0.43
WLCA2    WOLVERINE CREEK      PC RG :  0.42
PANW     NEW STUYAHOK         PP RZ :  0.42
CBKA2    CAMPBELL CREEK TRACT PC RG :  0.40
PAMR     MERRILL FIELD        PP RZ :  0.39
PADQ     KODIAK               PP RZ :  0.39
KMPA2    KENAI MOOSE REFUGE   PC R2 :  0.39
PAQT     NUIQSUT              PP RZ :  0.37
PSJA2    PORT SAN JUAN        PC R2 :  0.36
PANC     ANCHORAGE            PP RZ :  0.35
PAUN     UNALAKLEET           PP RZ :  0.34
MOGA2    MOTHER GOOSE LAKE    PC RG :  0.34
ALHA2    ALCAN HWY MI-1244    PC RG :  0.34
PALH     LAKE HOOD            PP RZ :  0.31
COVA2    COVILLE RAWS         PC RG :  0.31
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :  0.29
EXGA2    EXIT GLACIER         PC R2 :  0.29
PAMA2    PAMICHTUK LAKE       PC RG :  0.27
TUGA2    TURNAGAIN PASS       PC R2 :  0.26
JBRA2    JBER                 PC RG :  0.26
KWKA2    KOKWOK RIVER         PC RG :  0.25

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND... OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA... OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA... AND OVER THE
NORTHWEST MAINLAND AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE.  NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR... AND OVER PART OF THE NORTHEAST MAINLAND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TO NEAR EAGLE.  THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ACL



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