Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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AGUS71 KTAR 261821
HMDTAR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...TAUNTON...MA
120 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

*** HEAVY SNOW FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND ***
*** HEAVY SNOW FOR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE ***
*** HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND ***

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
:
15Z ( 10 AM EST ) SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A 1006 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE EASTERN SHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS..
.PASSING JUST EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT AND INTO NOVA SCOTIA
PROVINCE CANADA BY THANKSGIVING MORNING. THE STORM WILL TAP DEEP
ATLANTIC AND SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE BRINGING HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
:
FOR MOST OF THE REGION THIS STORM WILL BRING SNOW...BUT INITIALLY
THE AIR ACROSS A LOT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL SUPPORT RAIN
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT FOR SOUTH COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND WHERE
THE BULK OF THIS STORM WILL BE RAIN.
:
BASIN AVERAGE MELTED EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVIEST
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM HOULTON MAINE
TO PLYMOUTH NEW HAMPSHIRE TO NEWBURGH NEW YORK WHERE AMOUNTS ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED AN INCH. AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES ACROSS
FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD OCCUR.
:
WE EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO APPROACH OR POSSIBLY EXCEED A FOOT
FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS NORTHEAST INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/DOWNEAST MAINE.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS WESTERN AND FAR
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW YORK STATE AS WELL AS ACROSS NORTHWEST
VERMONT.
:
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:
:
RIVER LEVELS WERE STEADY OR FALLING AT MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE SLOWER RESPONDING LOCATIONS...SUCH AS
TONAWANDA CREEK NEAR RAPIDS, NY...WERE STILL RISING FROM THE RAIN
AND SNOW MELT EARLIER THIS WEEK. RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN
THE NERFC FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
:
MINOR RISES ARE EXPECTED ON RIVERS IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND
ON LONG ISLAND...WHERE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WILL FALL AS RAIN. NORTHERN AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE
MOSTLY SNOW...SO LITTLE IF ANY HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE IS ANTICIPATED
.
:
ACCORDING TO THE USGS WATER WATCH WEBPAGE...7-DAY AVERAGE
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE NERFC REGION ARE GENERALLY NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.  EXCEPTIONS TO THIS TREND ARE IN WESTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WHERE RAINFALL AND THE MELTING OF THE
RECENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS RAISED FLOWS ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
LEVELS.

:
FLOOD OUTLOOK DISCUSSION:
:
THE NERFC FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS SHOWING THAT
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
:
THE FLOOD OUTLOOK GRAPHIC IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/FOP
:
ADDITIONAL WATER AND WEATHER RELATED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON
THE NWS/NERFC HOME PAGE AT http://www.nws.noaa.gov/er/nerfc
:
$$
:
THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 2 2014.
IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A PRODUCT AVAILABLE ON OUR WEBSITE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NERFC/BRIEFINGS
:
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:         RON HORWOOD
HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION:                  JEFF OUELLET





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