Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 291900
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015


...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
        RISK...LIMITED.
 AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
 AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA..AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THREAT EXPANDS
        EAST THIS AFTERNOON..AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THREAT EXPANDS
        EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

        ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...

INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED
TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 WILL RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEVERE RISKS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.


INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN AXIS
MOVES EAST. AREAL FLOODING NEAR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AND LAKES WILL
BE MAINTAINED AS WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A QUIETER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. ONLY LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.


EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PLEASE NOTE THAT AREAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE AREA LAKES AND ARE NEAR OR OVER FULL
CAPACITY...AND RIVERS THAT HAVE BEEN IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$








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