Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXAK02 KWNH 281735
PMDAK

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

VALID 12Z SAT APR 01 2017 - 12Z WED APR 05 2017

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
WESTERN AK WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES/THE YUKON
SLOWLY NUDGING IN FROM THE EAST.  OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC SETUP.  DIFFERENCES ARISE IN REGARDS TO A FUJIWARA
INTERACTION OF TWO CYCLONES, WHERE THE MODELS SHOW DECENT SPREAD.
TO HELP DEAL WITH THE ISSUE, USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 06Z AND 12Z
GFS, 00Z CANADIAN, 00Z ECMWF, AND 00Z UKMET EARLY, AND
TRANSITIONED TOWARDS A MAJORITY 00Z NAEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN BLEND THEREAFTER.  THIS IDEA MAINTAINED GOOD CONTINUITY.

WEATHER-WISE, EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL, SOUTHEAST, AND THE AK PANHANDLE THOUGH AMOUNTS EACH
DAY DO NOT APPEAR EXTREME.  WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS, PAR FOR THE COURSE FOR
THE COLD SEASON. THE CYCLONE PROGRESSION INTO AND NEAR AK SHOULD
LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES AND MILDNESS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AK,
WITH SEASONABLY COLD READINGS REMAINING ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AT
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC GYRE.

ROTH
$$




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