Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS02 KWBC 130659
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
158 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 16 2016 - 12Z SAT FEB 20 2016

...WINTERY ERN US PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK SWITCHES TO THE
W-CENTRAL US MID-LATE WEEK...

INITIALLY OPTED TO LEAN ON THE 12 UTC GEFS MEAN ACROSS THE ERN US
TUE INTO WED DURING A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER INCLUDING A WINTER
STORM/HEAVY PCPN THREAT AS IT OFFERED BETTER WPC CONTINUITY AND A
COMPOSITE GUIDANCE SOLUTION AMID ABOVE NORMAL FORECAST SPREAD.
DURING THE FORECAST PROCESS...THEN DECIDED TO INCREASINGLY
INCORPORATE RECENT PROGRESSIVE TRENDS WITH GFS BASED LOW
DEVELOPMENTS THAT SEEMED TO HAVE MERIT GIVEN WAVELENGTH SPACING OF
A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
NOW THE LATEST 00 UTC ECMWF HAS TRENDED STRONGLY IN THIS DIRECTION
FROM ITS PRIOR SEVERAL DAYS WORTH OF RUNS...BOLSTERING WPC
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. EVEN SO...THE FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY WITH
UNCERTAIN AIRMASS TRANSITIONS. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
INFLOW INTO A RECEDING ERN US COLD AIRMASS DOES THOUGH OFFER AMPLE
POTENTIAL FOR A WINTERY SNOW-ICE-RAIN MESS IN A PATTERN WITH
WIDESPREAD HEAVIER PCPN. PLEASE ALSO SEE WPC SHORT RANGE DESK
PRODUCTS WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW ENTERING THEIR TIME FRAME.

THE WPC MEDIUM RANGE PRODUCT SUITE UPSTREAM LATER THROUGH DAYS 4-7
WAS PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF NOW REASONABLY
COMPATABLE GUIDANCE. GUIDANCE IS NOW BETTER CLUSTERED OVERALL. THE
SOLUTION IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH PROGRESSIVE ADVANCE OF DYNAMIC
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LEADING SURFACE SYSTEM/WIDESPREAD
PCPN TRANSLATION ACROSS THE WEST COAST THEN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
THE ROCKIES WED/THU. EXPECT COASTAL HEAVY RAINS AND AN INLAND
MARCHING PCPN SWATH ACROSS THE WRN US INCLUDING SNOWS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY FAVORED TERRAIN. ORGANIZED LOW AND FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT
THAT WORKS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND E-CENTRAL US DAYS 6/7 NEXT
FRI-SAT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL AMPLE LEAD WARMING SHOULD OFFER
MODEST MOISTURE INFLOW AND PCPN...WITH BEST SUPPORT CLOSER TO THE
LOW TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.

SCHICHTEL


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