Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
000
FXHW01 KWNH 061211
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

VALID 00Z SAT MAY 07 2016 - 00Z SAT MAY 14 2016

GUIDANCE MAINTAINS REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS THOUGH WITH SOME LINGERING DIFFERENCES.  THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PUSH A
FRONT INTO THE ISLANDS TODAY.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR
THE BIG ISLAND.  HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS WHILE THE BIG
ISLAND AND VICINITY WILL SEE MORE EASTERLY FLOW AT LEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE FRONT SHOULD LOSE DEFINITION WITH TIME BUT
AN AXIS OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, 1.25-1.50 INCHES OR
SO, SHOULD LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR A
NUMBER OF DAYS.  STALLING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
BAND MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME LOCATIONS,
EITHER FROM MULTI-DAY ACCUMULATION OR OCCASIONALLY MORE INTENSE
ACTIVITY.

BY WED-FRI THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ALOFT WHICH IMPACT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE AXIS.  AROUND WED-THU THE 00Z/06Z
GFS RUNS EXTEND UPPER TROUGHING MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
ISLANDS, PUSHING MOISTURE SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD OF RECENT ECMWF RUNS.
 GEFS/NAEFS/ECMWF MEANS SUPPORT LEANING AWAY FROM THE GFS ALOFT
THOUGH THE 00Z GEFS STILL SUPPRESSES THE MOISTURE.  BY NEXT FRI
GUIDANCE EXPECTS SOME DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT BUT WITH NO
REAL CONSENSUS.  THE 06Z GFS DEVELOPS THE LOWEST HEIGHTS WHILE THE
00Z NAEFS/ECMWF MEANS MAINTAIN THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS, LEAVING THE
00Z GFS/GEFS MEAN/ECMWF IN THE MIDDLE.  AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A
BETTER CONSENSUS AMONG NON-06Z GFS SOLUTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER TRADES THAN THAT RUN.

RAUSCH

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.