Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXHW01 KWNH 041211
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
811 AM EDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 00Z SAT SEP 05 2015 - 00Z SAT SEP 12 2015

TO THE SOUTH OF DEPARTING HURRICANE IGNACIO EXPECT A BAND OF
ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS TO PERSIST
OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND, SUPPORTING
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.  A DRIER TREND BEGINNING
OVER THE BIG ISLAND SHOULD GRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD WITH TIME OVER
THE COMING DAYS.  HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY
REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ON THE
LIGHT SIDE, DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.

THE PRIMARY FOCUS BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE ON
HURRICANE JIMENA, CURRENTLY BEING TRACKED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER.  AS PER THE CPHC 0900 UTC ADVISORY JIMENA IS
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 145W LONGITUDE AND FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THEN TURN TO
THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST.  BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE
00Z GFS IS A SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN EXTREME BUT STILL A MEANINGFUL
NUMBER OF OTHER SOLUTIONS BRING JIMENA QUITE CLOSE TO THE STATE,
PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.  THIS TRACK WILL REQUIRE
MONITORING FOR WIND AND ENHANCED RAINFALL POTENTIAL BY NEXT
THU-FRI.

RAUSCH

$$





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