Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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270
FXHW01 KWNH 261232
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 AM EST SUN FEB 26 2017

VALID 00Z MON FEB 27 2017 - 00Z MON MAR 06 2017

THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RATHER BLOCKED WITH A CLOSED HIGH ANCHORING THE
WATERS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. UNDERNEATH THIS ANTICYCLONE, A
PAIR OF UPPER LOWS WILL PULL AWAY FROM ONE ANOTHER WHICH WILL HELP
CARVE OUT A MORE PRONOUNCED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL PACIFIC. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WINDS WHILE MOISTURE MARKEDLY INCREASES FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. IT WILL BE A RATHER WET PERIOD ON
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS AWAY FROM KAUAI
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMPARED TO THE SOLUTIONS YESTERDAY, MODELS
ARE A BIT DEEPER WHICH HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST
RAINFALL. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS HAS COME WITH MORE SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE WITH THE 00Z CMC ON THE QUICKER SIDE WHILE THE 00Z UKMET
DEVELOPED THE SURFACE WAVE AFTER THE SYSTEM CROSSES HAWAI`I. THE
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WET THROUGH MID-WEEK
WHILE ALSO FAVORING GENERAL LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
BEYOND THIS PERIOD, THE WEATHER SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO DRY OUT BUT
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT BAND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND VECTORS. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD EVENTUALLY BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOST ISLANDS AS THE WEAKENING
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.


RUBIN-OSTER



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