Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 111206
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
705 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

VALID 00Z FRI FEB 12 2016 - 00Z FRI FEB 19 2016

THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DISPLAY BETTER THAN
AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH NEXT THU.  FROM
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND EXPECT A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD OVER THE ISLANDS.  AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY JUST NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
STRENGTHEN AND TRACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  WINDS WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
IN THE 0.75 INCH TO SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1.00 INCH RANGE.

BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS A FRONT
APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS WITH A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER
PWATS AND POSSIBLY SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RAINFALL.  THIS FRONT SHOULD
WEAKEN AS SUPPORTING DYNAMICS ALOFT SPLIT BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A DIFFUSE UPPER LOW WELL
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SUPPORT STRENGTHENING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST, WITH
THE TIGHTEST SURFACE GRADIENT/HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO OCCUR
TUE-WED.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATE
WED-THU.  THE COMBINATION OF SHEARED ENERGY ALOFT AND ENHANCEMENT
ALONG NORTHEASTWARD FACING TERRAIN SHOULD SUPPORT SHOWERS OF
VARYING INTENSITY NEXT MON-THU.

RAUSCH

$$




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