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FXUS06 KWBC 082034
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON FEBRUARY 08 2016

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2016

TODAY`S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE A TROUGH OVER WESTERN ALASKA EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC, A RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND PARTS OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE
PREDICTIONS OF THE ECMWF, NCEP GEFS AND CANADIAN MODELS, WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE FORECASTING THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO BE
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE LOCATION IN THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS,
WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING TO THE GULF COAST IN THE ECMWF.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN THE PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED TEMPERATURE
PATTERN. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
ALASKA, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE WEST, AS WELL AS FOR THE
WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGIONS, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.

DIFFERENCES IN THE RESPECTIVE HEIGHT FORECASTS OF THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION
SYSTEMS LEAD TO DIFFERENCES IN THEIR PRECIPITATION FORECASTS OVER THE FORECAST
DOMAIN. MODELS AGREE ON ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, INCLUDING THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AS WELL
AS NORTHERN AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE OFFICIAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST RELIES SOMEWHAT ON GUIDANCE FROM
THE NCEP GEFS REFORECAST CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AND THE NORTH AMERICAN
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM OR NAEFS, THAT CONSOLIDATES THE CANADIAN AND NCEP GEFS
ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND FOR
WESTERN TEXAS, AND FOR ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHEAST. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATES A GREATER PROBABILITY FOR BELOW
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
SOUTHEAST THAN OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH A DIFFERENT PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE CONUS.


TODAY`S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40%
OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY`S
OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2016

MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN
OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODELS PREDICT
A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF ALASKA AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, HOWEVER WHILE THE
NCEP GEFS MAINTAIN AN EXTENSION OF BELOW AVERAGE HEIGHT ANOMALIES INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS SMALLER HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO BE PREDICTED FOR
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BY THE NCEP GEFS ENSEMBLE, WHILE
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES PREDICT MUCH LOWER MAGNITUDE POSITIVE
ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS. AS FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, THE PREDICTED
TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS SIMILAR IN DIFFERENT MODEL FORECASTS, WHILE THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED PRECIPITATION PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST AGAIN RELIES MORE ON THE NCEP GEFS REFORECAST CALIBRATED
PRECIPITATION AND THE NAEFS CONSOLIDATION OF THE CANADIAN AND NCEP GEFS
ENSEMBLES.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ENHANCED FOR ALASKA WITH
PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE CONUS, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING PARTS
OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE MOSTLY NEAR NORMAL IS INDICATED. BELOW NORMAL
PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW LEAD TO A FORECAST
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE AGAIN ENHANCED FOR EASTERN
REGIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN TEXAS, AS INDICATED BY THE GEFS AND NAEFS
FORECAST TOOLS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE
FORECAST OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGIONS INTO THE NORTHEAST.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY`S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY`S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
11, 40% OF TODAY`S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF
TODAY`S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE
TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN AND SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST TOOLS.

FORECASTER: CPC FORECASTER

NOTES:


AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT
ISSUED.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE   N-NEAR NORMAL   B-BELOW

THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
(DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS
ALWAYS < 40%.

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 18

ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520128 - 19860124 - 19770217 - 19970129 - 20010120


ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860124 - 19520128 - 19770216 - 20030127 - 19880123


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 14 - 18 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    A     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    B     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    B     WYOMING     A    B
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    B
NEW MEXICO  A    B     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    B     OKLAHOMA    A    B
N TEXAS     A    B     S TEXAS     A    B     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    N    B
ARKANSAS    B    B     LOUISIANA   B    B     WISCONSIN   N    A
ILLINOIS    B    B     MISSISSIPPI B    B     MICHIGAN    B    A
INDIANA     B    N     OHIO        B    A     KENTUCKY    B    B
TENNESSEE   B    B     ALABAMA     B    B     NEW YORK    B    A
VERMONT     B    A     NEW HAMP    B    A     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        B    N     RHODE IS    B    N
PENN        B    A     NEW JERSEY  B    B     W VIRGINIA  B    B
MARYLAND    B    B     DELAWARE    B    B     VIRGINIA    B    B
N CAROLINA  B    B     S CAROLINA  B    B     GEORGIA     B    B
FL PNHDL    B    B     FL PENIN    B    B     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    N     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    N
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 16 - 22 2016

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    B     NRN CALIF   A    B
SRN CALIF   A    B     IDAHO       A    N     NEVADA      A    B
W MONTANA   A    A     E MONTANA   A    A     WYOMING     A    N
UTAH        A    B     ARIZONA     A    B     COLORADO    A    N
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    A     S DAKOTA    A    A
NEBRASKA    A    A     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    A     IOWA        A    A     MISSOURI    A    A
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    A
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    N     MICHIGAN    A    A
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        A    A     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    N     ALABAMA     A    N     NEW YORK    A    A
VERMONT     A    A     NEW HAMP    A    A     MAINE       A    A
MASS        A    A     CONN        A    A     RHODE IS    A    A
PENN        A    A     NEW JERSEY  A    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    N     S CAROLINA  N    N     GEORGIA     N    N
FL PNHDL    N    N     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  A    A
AK ALEUTIAN A    A     AK WESTERN  A    A     AK INT BSN  A    A
AK S INT    A    A     AK SO COAST A    A     AK PNHDL    A    A

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$



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