Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 291952
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2017

VALID 00Z SUN APR 30 2017 - 00Z TUE MAY 02 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS...

...SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN
U.S...


THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH HAS GIVEN WAY TO FLASH FLOODING AND
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE SUSTAINING DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST AND WILL
TAP INTO COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT
FOR CONVECTION--SETTING OFF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.  A HIGH RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE PRESENT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
MEANDERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ADDITION TO AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.  ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT AND ONCE AGAIN WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT SUNDAY.  BY MONDAY,
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST
SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA; HOWEVER, THE FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL NOT BE AS POTENT. SEE THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH
THIS SYSTEM (WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV).

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTH AND EAST.  WITH THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT, SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST LATER ON TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY.  RAIN AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ONLY LAST FOR A DAY--ONCE THE FRONT
MOVES TOWARD THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING,
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION WILL
TAPER OFF.


REINHART

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP

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