Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 230809
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

VALID 12Z WED AUG 23 2017 - 12Z FRI AUG 25 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD
FRONT...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...


A COLD FRONT SPANS FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE ITS EASTERLY TREK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ONCE AGAIN,
THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE
CAROLINAS AND TEXAS.  ON WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE STALLING ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
TEXAS.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.  MEANWHILE, THE
ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD--IN FACT, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD
INTO THE BIG BEND. THE HEAVY RAINFALL FORECASTED FOR THIS AREA
COULD BRING POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING. ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT
WILL STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ACROSS TEXAS.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TEXAS WILL
OCCUR--WITH THE COVERAGE INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  FARTHER EAST, THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SLOW ALONG THE
CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHICH WILL GIVE WAY TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  THE FRONT STALLS
ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND RIGHT OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BY THURSDAY EVENING--BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS REGION.  BY FRIDAY MORNING, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED.  THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE RAINFALL OFFSHORE. CONCURRENTLY, HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL BEND OF TEXAS.

FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  THUS, A SLIGHT RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  EXPECT THE SAME ACTIVITY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A WEAK TROUGH
THAT WILL DRIFT NEAR FLORIDA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS.  AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES PAST THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY MORNING, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW WITH THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
SOUTH FLORIDA.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FELT ACROSS THIS REGION IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.  ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES PAST THESE AREAS, BRINGING
LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.


REINHART


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
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