Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 251809
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 25 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
NATION. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
STATE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHWEST
U.S. AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

HAZARDS

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, MON, JUL
28.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MON-THU, JUL 28-31.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, MON-TUE, JUL 28-29.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, MON-SUN, JUL 28-AUG 3.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR MONDAY JULY 28 - FRIDAY AUGUST 01: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST MONDAY.

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS, IN COMBINATION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE, IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE
HEAVY RAIN (1-2.5 INCHES) FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS MON-THU. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE
SPECIFICATION OF RELATED HAZARD AREAS AT THIS TIME.



A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES MON-FRI.
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-100+ DEGREES F. THIS IS OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN SINCE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IDAHO. SMOKE FROM THESE WILDFIRES IS LIKELY TO REDUCE AIR
QUALITY.



FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN (1-2 INCHES) FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE
MON-TUE. OTHER AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA MAY EXPERIENCE HEAVY RAIN AND
CONVECTION, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE SPECIFICATION OF ADDITIONAL
HAZARD AREAS.



TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER HAWAII.

FOR SATURDAY AUGUST 02 - FRIDAY AUGUST 08: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PROLONG MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SAT-SUN.



BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON JULY 22, SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND NOW COVERS 23.9 PERCENT OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$




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