Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS

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FONT12 KNHC 300850
PWSAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016
0900 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   1(12)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   1(12)   1(13)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   4(11)   2(13)   X(13)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   7(14)   2(16)   1(17)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  1   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   2(12)   1(13)   X(13)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   6(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   6(12)   6(18)   1(19)   X(19)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   7(14)   4(18)   1(19)   X(19)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SURF CITY NC   34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   4(21)   X(21)   X(21)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  2   6( 8)   7(15)   4(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  4   7(11)   6(17)   3(20)   2(22)   X(22)   X(22)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FLORENCE SC    34  3   3( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

COLUMBIA SC    34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LITTLE RIVER   34  6   7(13)   3(16)   3(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  6   7(13)   4(17)   2(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  4   7(11)   2(13)   2(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

CHARLESTON SC  34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



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