Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ13 KNHC 222032
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)  20(34)   2(36)   X(36)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  51(54)  23(77)   1(78)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  22(46)   1(47)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  16(29)   X(29)

CLIPPERTON IS  34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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