Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
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000
FOPZ15 KNHC 290843
PWSEP5

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017
0900 UTC SAT JUL 29 2017

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

15N 125W       34 99   1(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 125W       50  6   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

20N 125W       34  X   2( 2)  28(30)  11(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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