Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 210104
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

VALID 01Z Wed Feb 21 2018 - 12Z Wed Feb 21 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E CXTO 15 SSW CXDI FDY 30 NE HNB 15 ESE KM04 30 E ELD
15 S 11R 15 ESE RND 15 SSE ERV 35 WNW 6R9 25 WNW SEP MKO
10 W JEF 20 NE GBG 25 NNW MKG 15 ESE HTL 30 SSW CWWX 20 WSW CXPC
10 N CWRK 40 NNE CYTR 35 E CXTO.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
IND 15 ESE CUL 25 N DYR 20 W M97 30 NW UTS ATT 20 S 6R9
15 S 7F9 15 SE MWL 30 SW JSV 15 W TBN 30 SSW PPQ 25 SSW PIA
10 SSW RQB 30 N CWLS 10 SSW CYKF 10 SSW TTF IND.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ESE PNT 10 SW BIV 25 ENE GRR 10 SW RNP 10 SE JXN 20 N GUS
MTO 20 S DEC 15 N DEC 10 ESE PNT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW RUE 25 ESE UNO 25 W POF 10 NW JBR 15 N SGT 20 NW SHV
40 SW PSN ILE 10 WNW 05F TKI 10 NE PRX 15 NW RUE.


01Z Update:

Widespread heavy rain and longer duration flood event to continue
from Texas to Michigan. Flash flooding is more likely in the
ARKLATEX region and including much of the rest of Arkansas where a
few hundred J/kg of CAPE are available. Elsewhere the combination
of cold ground and now wet antecedent conditions, along with
basin-wide steady rainfall, argues for maintaining ongoing risk
areas for excessive rainfall, although hourly rates are not likely
to climb much above a quarter inch from Missouri northward
overnight.

Previous Discussion:

The heaviest magnitude of amounts and greatest flash flood risk is
probably setting up from northeast TX into southeast OK and
western AR...with 3-6" of rain in that axis through 12z. Amounts
should be lighter across the northern extent of the moderate risk
over northern AR and southern MO...where instability is less and
the front should be more progressive. Still looking at 1-4" here
though, and with FFG lower than it is to the south, a flash flood
risk still exists.

Burke
$$




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