Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 230028
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
728 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 23 2017 - 12Z THU FEB 23 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 ENE SUA FPR 20 WNW VRB 15 W COF 10 E SFB 30 SSW SGJ
10 NW SGJ 15 NNE SGJ 35 E SGJ.


SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AN UPPER LOW MOVING ITS WAY SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICIO.  CONVECTION
OVER ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPORTED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND FOCUSED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY.  THE MOISTURE PLUME IS STILL IN TACT EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN AXIS HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST.  STILL...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICENTLY MOIST TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING SHOWERS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE LATE EVENING.  NORTH OF
THERE...SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW NORTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DRAW MOISTURE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OF THE
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL.  OVERALL...THE
HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A
SIGNAL TO MAINTAIN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.

BANN

$$





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