Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
899
FOUS30 KWBC 030745
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT TUE MAY 03 2016

...VALID 12Z TUE MAY 03 2016 - 12Z WED MAY 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST

CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES WILL
BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
PW VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AND UVVS WILL BE ENHANCED IN A
BROADLY UPPER DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL JET ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND A FARTHER NORTH JET STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS THE USUAL
AMOUNT OF DETAIL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS---BUT A SIGNAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUNOFF
ISSUES DEPENDING UPON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE AREAS.
THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS---AS WOULD BE EXPECTED---ARE
SHOWING HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE 1-2"+ RANGE---WITH THESE AMOUNTS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A BRIEF PERIOD LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

ORAVEC
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.