Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS04 KWBC 071843
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 07 2015


PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 08/0000 UTC THRU JUL 09/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR



DAY 1

NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA---GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW EASTWARD PUSH OF THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND TOWARD THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD AND A
LEADING SLOW MOVING VORT FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST OF BOTH THE CALIFORNIA CLOSED LOW AND GREAT BASIN
VORT FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA--INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.  WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
DEFINED AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES--WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION
LIKELY AGAIN FROM NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA---ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ISOLATED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY SLOW MOVING CELLS.

PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER

WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY DAY 1 FROM
NORTH CENTRAL TX--ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK---CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN MO---AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER
ACROSS MOST OF KY INTO SOUTHWEST WV.  A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE REGIONS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IN AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
STRETCHING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  TRAINING OF CELLS IS A SIGNIFICANT
RISK THIS PERIOD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS TRAINING WILL
BE IN A WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION FROM EASTERN OK---ACROSS
NORTHERN AR---SOUTHERN MO AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER
WHERE LOW LEVEL WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  FARTHER TO THE WEST---THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
TX INTO CENTRAL TO EASTERN OK AHEAD OF THE MCV MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH TX---WITH TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LIKELY TONIGHT---CONTINUING INTO
MOST OF WEDNESDAY.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR VERY HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS--LEADING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE HEAVY RAIN FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
AREAL AVERAGE 2-4" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS---WITH
HEAVIER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 5" WHERE THE MOST PERSISTENT TRAINING
OCCURS.

NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
OH VALLEY WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE ON THE NORTHEAST END
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC REGION.  WHILE FRONTAL/PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ORGANIZED AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT---THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT WILL KEEP PRECIP TOTALS
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN UPSTREAM.  WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT---MODERATE TO HEAVY
TOTALS POSSIBLE.


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ORAVEC

24HR QP VT 09/00Z
 0.01 492612 496621 499627 501634 501647 503654 506658 509664
      511670 514674 517674 522702 513721 504736 498744 496748
      492752 479763 451787 427817 423820 420826 415834 412842
      410847 410854 417903 417910 416914 413925 407948 406953
      402956 396962 393965 391970 387981 381988 376996 371003
      368007 363009 358017 361026 364025 367022 371020 377021
      386023 391026 393026 394024 393019 397018 407019 412022
      416022 420020 425018 433014 434010 437007 442000 445992
      450982 452978 455976 467964 473956 480947 486939 489930
      493919 495914 497909 500905 502904 505906 507903 512893
      518885 524876 530870 536864 539863 540869 544881 545886
      543891 536910 527930 519949 513960 510963 509972 509980
      512982 514983 514987 512992 511999 510004 502009 487018
      481021 475027 461037 448049 445054 446058 449062 454063
      461070 465077 467083 467090 467098 468103 466107 464111
      466114 473120 479126 481135 480140 478144 474148 464144
      463142 459143 457148 455152 451156 445161 442161 439158
      436156 433155 429158 431206 433210 432218 432224 431229
      425236 418243 412248 406250 403249 400246 395238 393233
      392228 394226 395222 393219 386210 380204 373198 368189
      364181 367178 370175 380173 381167 380163 376150 373139
      374134 373129 372125 368122 366119 367115 375111 378107
      380103 379099 375095 372091 367089 361087 358085 345083
      343086 343090 344094 346105 346107 341109 335108 331110
      326109 322107 317101 312095 309092 304092 298091 293092
      280091 275091 269089 260086 253083
 0.01 253083 251082 250082 248081 246080 244079 244078 243078
      241077 240076 239075 238073 236071 234070 233069 233068
      232067 231066 229065 227063 227062 226061 225060 224058
 0.01 478617 473626 469635 459654 454661 447668 440674 432679
      418690 407707 387737 380743 373749 366755 360761 357764
      354768 351776 345785 342792 339797 336799 329805 321810
      317812 310812 300812 291808 278802 269798 261796 250799
      245805 241812 240816 242819 246819 248814 251812 253814
      256818 255822 254827 254833 255840 257844 261846 266846
      277845 287844 302855 310849 313846 316843 321836 324826
      325821 327818 331814 337813 345817 348820 350824 347844
      350855 353859 355865 355871 353876 351886 345906 339925
      336936 332945 324963 320971 314977 308983 302989 288001
      283006 279009 274010 269011 264012 254012 246012 240013
      230018
 0.25 512710 512704 511698 508692 505681 502674 495660 493656
      490656 486663 478675 469687 463698 456708 447719 444727
      444731 445736 440742 434746 429750 425757 418769 414773
      410774 407773 405753 404750 401749 396752 392758 389765
      385780 383786 379792 376799 374808 370814 367822 364836
      362853 359867 351896 349914 348926 346933 341945 334957
      326969 319979 304000 296012 287020 283026 279030 273032
      265034 258036 250035 239033 232036 228041 227048 228056
      231061 235066 240071 244075 252077 258080 265082 272082
      279081 286077 288071 286064 282060 276057 273055 271052
      273049 276047 280047 283045 288043 302039 308026 318018
      329010 337003 341999 348996 360992 366989 369983 375980
      380974 387960 395948 398941 400935 402919 405901 405891
      405881 401866 399862 400859 401848 404830 410817 416804
      423794 430783 439772 445768 454765 459763 465760 478751
      489742 497734 505724 509716 512710
 0.25 444104 443096 441093 437092 435093 432090 428087 424086
      424090 426098 425102 423105 417109 413102 411099 410094
      413086 416080 419070 420060 418053 415046 403039 395037
      391036 384038 377042 376048 377053 375057 373059 368058
      365060 364062 366068 371074 378086 383090 386092 391093
      395098 397105 401111 406115 420114 425115 429114 431111
      444104
 0.25 421226 423221 424216 423207 417195 415193 411192 406194
      397194 391189 384188 378189 381194 386198 391202 400212
      404217 406224 408232 410234 413233 421226
 0.25 289818 288813 286810 280808 274805 267803 259803 254806
      258811 262816 268820 276822 283822 288821 289818
 0.50 508706 504702 500695 499688 498686 494689 485699 481703
      477709 474715 472723 470730 467737 463743 462747 464750
      468751 472749 477745 488737 497728 501723 504717 508706
 0.50 492682 491680 490681 488683 487684 485686 485687 484689
      482690 483690 484691 486690 486689 487688 489686 489685
      490684 492683 492682
 0.50 433761 429759 427760 424764 422768 421773 421775 418778
      420781 422777 425772 426769 429765 432762 433761
 0.50 417222 416220 415217 414214 411211 409210 408207 406205
      405205 404208 406211 408213 409216 410219 411223 412226
      416225 417222
 0.50 412793 411789 408787 403785 399782 396772 394776 392782
      386794 379804 374817 369829 366842 360873 358888 356903
      353918 351925 349933 343945 337954 311996 308003 309008
      310010 314014 319011 329005 339997 349991 361988 376970
      390948 393942 395936 398920 401904 401897 401887 397883
      392879 390878 389874 389866 392851 394834 396827 398821
      403810 408801 412793
 0.50 407065 409061 408057 406052 403048 399045 395043 389043
      386046 385050 386053 388058 389062 387065 385070 381072
      378071 376078 379083 382082 389082 393081 396078 401069
      407065
 0.50 281815 278812 275810 271808 267806 263805 258807 260809
      262813 264815 268817 273818 275817 281815 281815
 0.50 270073 266063 261054 255047 247041 242040 236038 232040
      229045 228050 229055 235063 242070 250074 255076 261076
      266075 270073
 1.00 393808 393804 391802 386804 382808 379814 371833 366860
      364871 363879 364887 368899 367902 365903 363909 359920
      355930 350939 343949 332967 327976 321984 315994 313003
      314006 318006 323004 331998 338991 346986 357983 364976
      371967 377959 383951 388941 392929 394917 395909 395901
      393894 390890 384888 379888 380882 381877 383863 386851
      388822 393808
 1.00 257065 255061 251057 247052 243049 238046 234046 232047
      231051 232053 235058 239061 244065 249068 253068 256067
      257065
 1.50 389927 391917 389908 389901 387897 385897 381900 376904
      373908 369913 366917 363923 357934 351943 343952 337961
      332971 325982 320992 318999 320000 324999 331992 341985
      350979 360974 364971 368967 375956 381947 384943 387937
      389927
 1.50 383848 383841 383834 382827 379825 374830 372840 369851
      368862 367874 366878 367883 372883 375880 377877 378871
      380860 382850 383848
 2.00 386936 387928 386921 384916 382911 378910 374913 369920
      359938 354945 346951 340958 336966 327984 325989 326992
      328991 335985 342979 350975 366967 377949 382943 386936
 2.00 381841 380837 377834 374837 372842 372846 371853 370858
      370864 371871 373866 375862 376857 378851 379847 381841
      381841
 3.00 382936 383931 381928 377927 373929 370935 366940 357949
      348956 343961 339966 336972 335980 339978 343973 349969
      354967 360964 365961 369955 372949 376943 380939 382936
 4.00 361956 359956 361956 361956

$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.