Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 101951
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/10/14 1951Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1941Z  JS
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LOCATION...ARIZONA/UTAH/CENT-SE NEVADA/SE CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...LKN...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...UPDATE TO SPENES MESSAGE SENT AT 15Z FOR RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2000-0200Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...
FOR SE NV/NW AZ/SW UT...OBVIOUS INITIAL CONCERN IS THE CONCENTRATED
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING CENTERED OVER NW AZ WITHIN THE CORE OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE PLUME AIDED BY SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM WELL DEFINED VORT SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTING TO THE N ALONG THE CA-AZ BORDER AND MORE
MESOSCALE FORCING FROM LEFTOVER MCV`S ALONG THE CA-AZ BORDER AND OVER SE
NV. GIVEN THE DAYTIME HEATING ONGOING IN AREAS TO THE S OF THE CORE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WITH AXIS OF RELATIVELY HIGHER CAPE/LOWER CINH PER GOES
SOUNDER PRODUCT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT/MERGING CELLS IN
REGION OF WEAK STEERING TO POSE A VERY SERIOUS AND HIGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS NW AZ/SE NV AND SPREADING TO THE N AND NW FARTHER
INTO SE NV/SW UT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MERGING CELLS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEADING TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF ORGANIZATION. WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TO NEED TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF
BOTH MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE THREAT POTENTIALLY LIFTING FARTHER INTO S AND
E NV AND UT.
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FOR OTHER AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...DAYTIME HEATING/TERRAIN
CIRCULATIONS/LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES ARE IGNITING CONVECTION ACROSS CENT/E
NV AND OVER PORTIONS OF UT AS WELL. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO FAVOR SLOW MOVING PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY WITH LESSER CHANCE OF
OVERALL ORGANIZATION THAN ACTIVITY OVER SE NV/NW AZ. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS STILL LIKELY GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE ACTIVITY
WITHIN MOISTURE PLUME SEEN IN WATER VAPOR AND GOES SOUNDER/BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT WHICH IS A CONTINUATION OF THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN THIS REGION
WHICH IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 150-200% OF NORMAL. AS STATED IN THE PARAGRAPH
ABOVE, WILL ALSO NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER NW AZ/SE NV/SW UT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF IT SPREADING FARTHER TO
THE N LATER THIS EVENING.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4007 11049 3121 10987 3134 11340 3589 11701 3997 11709

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