Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 190442
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/19/14 0442Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15/13 0415Z KUSSELSON
NASA TRMM:0120Z DMSP SSMIS:0125Z  NOAA AMSU:0305Z 0020Z
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LOCATION...SW TEXAS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...TROPICAL STORM POLO`S MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
SEEP INTO TEXAS NEAR THE BIG BEND...SE NM ACTIVITY BEING HELPED BY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE FROM REMAINS OF ODILE AND E TO SELY MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM EASTERN TEXAS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BELIEVE WEAK REMAINS OF ODILE FROM LONG
IR SATELLITE LOOP NOW PASSING ACROSS EL PASO AREA.   BEST COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OUT AHEAD ACROSS SE NM CENTERED ON EDDY COUNTY NM SOUTH TO REEVES
COUNTY TX AND CATCHING A LITTLE BIT OF CULBERSON COUNTY ON THE WEST
FRINGES AND LEA COUNTY IN NM ON THE EAST FRINGES.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL
CENTERED CENTRAL NM WITH VERY WEAK IMPULSES SOUTH JUST WEST OF EL PASO
AND ANOTHER SE NM/INTERIOR SW TEXAS.  WHEN LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL LAYERS
OF PWAT...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WAS FROM ENTRAINED INTO THE REMAINS
OF ODILE WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE EAST/SE THAT WAS
FILTERING IN.  THE COMBO OF WEAK IMPULSES AND THIS DEEP MOISTURE FROM
TWO SEPARATE SOURCES WAS HELPING PRODUCE THE LOCALLY HVY RAINS IN THE
SE NM SOUTH INTO INTERIOR SW TEXAS SPECIFIED EARLIER THIS MESSAGE.
OUT TO THE EAST OF HERE...SAME LAYERED PWAT PRODUCT WAS SHOWING A DEFINITE
MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND ADVECTION FROM TS POLO ORIGINATING
IN THE EAST PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF SW MEXICO AND EXTENDING NORTH /NE
INTO THE BIG BEND AREA.  THIS COMBINED WITH ESTABLISHED DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION FROM THE EAST AND SE WAS HELPING ACTIVITY CENTERED IN THE
CROCKETT COUNTY AREA AND PROBABLY RESULTING IN 1-2 INCH PER HR RATES.
HARD TO SAY WHETHER LONE CONVECTION OUT TO THE SE OF HERE FROM KARNES
TO FRIO COUNTY WOULD THROW ENOUGH OF AN OUTFLOW TO ALLOW MORE FOCUSED
MOISTURE TO BE DELIVERED TO THE WEST AND NW AND HAVE A CONTINUED EFFECT
TO THE CROCKETT COUNTY ACTIVITY...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR POINTS SOUTH
AND SE...VAL VERDE AND/OR EDWARDS COUNTY IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0430-0900Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...TWO AREAS OF FOCUS...SE NM SOUTH INTO REEVES
COUNTY FOR FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD.  PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND SHORT
WAVES SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS NOTHING STRONG UPSTREAM YET TO KICK UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES OUT TOO QUICKLY.  FEATURE PRETTY SUBTLE AND CAN`T REALLY
SAY ACTIVITY WILL STAY PERSISTENT AND MOVE SLOW OR PULSE UP AND DOWN
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.    TO THE EAST WITH CROCKETT
COUNTY ACTIVITY...DEEP MOISTURE ALSO FROM TWO SOURCES GETTING MORE
INVOLVED...STILL CAN BE A PULSE UP AND DOWN AREA OF CONVECTION BUT WITH
THAT DEEP MOISTURE CAN EASILY GET 1-2 INCH PER RATES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
THAT MAY EXTEND SOUTH AND /OR SE TO VAL VERDE/EDWARDS COUNTY AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3350 10337 3172 10051 3017 10126 3169 10567
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