Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 031342
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0642 MST Tuesday, March 3, 2015

This forecast is for Tuesday, March 3, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 42.7 F/5.9 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 348 ft/min (1.8 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 11526 ft MSL (6687 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 45.0 F/7.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1100 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 4989 ft MSL (150 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 03/04.... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:43:56 / 18:07:31 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 23 min 36 sec (683 min 36 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:25:57 MST... 44.19 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/03/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 6641 ft MSL (1802 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10381 ft MSL (5542 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10683 ft MSL (5844 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +7.3
K index......................... +8.8

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -55.8 -68.4   255   45   23  -1.7  -0.9  109.3 228.7    58.0      M    M
 45000  -50.9 -59.6   245   76   39   3.7   2.0   92.7 198.9    51.9      M    M
 40000  -47.5 -53.5   240   91   47 -16.7  -9.2   74.8 166.6    43.8      M    M
 38000  -51.5 -60.7   245  108   56   6.4   3.5   59.8 139.7    35.0      M    M
 36000  -48.4 -55.1   240  107   55   4.8   2.6   54.5 130.1    32.4      M    M
 34000  -48.7 -55.7   240  121   62  -1.5  -0.8   45.7 114.3    27.1      M    M
 32000  -45.9 -50.6   240  111   57   5.2   2.9   41.4 106.5    24.7      M    M
 30000  -44.6 -48.3   245  108   56  -0.5  -0.3   35.3  95.5    20.8      M    M
 29000  -43.8 -46.8   245  103   53   6.6   3.6   32.3  90.2    18.9      M    M
 28000  -41.7 -43.1   240   97   50   6.7   3.7   31.2  88.2    18.2      M    M
 27000  -40.9 -41.6   240   90   46  -3.2  -1.8   28.5  83.4    16.4      M    M
 26000  -40.1 -40.2   240   84   43   7.0   3.8   25.7  78.3    14.4      M    M
 25000  -37.9 -36.2   235   77   40   7.3   4.0   24.8  76.7    13.9      M    M
 24000  -35.8 -32.4   240   76   39   7.3   4.0   23.8  74.8    13.3      M    M
 23000  -33.5 -28.3   240   76   39   8.4   4.6   23.0  73.3    12.7      M    M
 22000  -31.5 -24.7   240   78   40   6.3   3.4   21.8  71.3    11.9      M    M
 21000  -29.8 -21.6   240   80   41  -1.9  -1.0   20.4  68.6    10.9      M    M
 20000  -31.4 -24.5   250   55   28   1.0   0.6   15.0  59.0     6.5      M    M
 19500  -30.5 -22.9   260   47   24   6.2   3.4   13.5  56.3     5.3      M    M
 19000  -29.4 -20.9   260   44   23   8.8   4.8   13.1  55.6     5.0      M    M
 18500  -28.1 -18.6   255   43   22   8.6   4.7   12.9  55.2     4.8      M    M
 18000  -26.8 -16.2   255   42   21   8.4   4.6   12.7  54.8     4.6      M    M
 17500  -25.6 -14.1   255   41   21   8.4   4.6   12.4  54.3     4.4      M    M
 17000  -24.3 -11.7   255   39   20   8.4   4.6   12.1  53.9     4.2      M    M
 16500  -23.1  -9.6   255   38   20   8.4   4.6   11.9  53.5     4.0      M    M
 16000  -21.8  -7.2   255   37   19   8.4   4.6   11.7  53.1     3.9      M    M
 15500  -20.6  -5.1   255   35   18   8.5   4.7   11.5  52.6     3.7      M    M
 15000  -19.4  -2.9   260   34   17   6.9   3.8   11.1  52.0     3.4      M    M
 14500  -18.4  -1.1   260   32   17   7.1   3.9   10.7  51.2     3.0      M    M
 14000  -17.4   0.7   265   31   16   7.3   4.0   10.2  50.4     2.6      M    M
 13500  -16.5   2.3   260   29   15   4.5   2.4    9.6  49.3     2.0      M    M
 13000  -15.8   3.6   255   27   14   6.0   3.3    8.7  47.7     1.2      M    M
 12500  -14.8   5.4   250   26   13   7.2   3.9    8.3  47.0     0.8      M    M
 12000  -13.7   7.3   245   25   13   7.2   4.0    7.9  46.3     0.4      M    M
 11500  -12.6   9.3   245   25   13   7.2   4.0    7.5  45.5    -0.0    545  2.8
 11000  -11.6  11.1   245   24   12   7.2   3.9    7.1  44.8    -0.4    499  2.5
 10500  -10.3  13.5   245   24   12   9.2   5.1    6.9  44.4    -0.7    447  2.3
 10250   -9.7  14.5   245   23   12   9.0   4.9    6.8  44.3    -0.7    420  2.1
 10000   -9.0  15.8   245   23   12   9.1   5.0    6.8  44.2    -0.8    392  2.0
  9750   -8.3  17.1   245   23   12   8.8   4.8    6.7  44.1    -0.9    365  1.9
  9500   -7.7  18.1   245   23   12   8.5   4.7    6.6  43.9    -1.0    338  1.7
  9250   -7.1  19.2   240   24   12   8.6   4.7    6.5  43.8    -1.1    312  1.6
  9000   -6.4  20.5   240   24   12   8.6   4.7    6.5  43.6    -1.1    286  1.5
  8750   -5.8  21.6   240   22   12   8.6   4.7    6.4  43.4    -1.2    259  1.3
  8500   -5.2  22.6   240   21   11   8.6   4.7    6.3  43.3    -1.4    233  1.2
  8250   -4.5  23.9   235   19   10   8.6   4.7    6.2  43.1    -1.5    206  1.0
  8000   -3.9  25.0   235   17    9   8.6   4.7    6.1  42.9    -1.5    180  0.9
  7750   -3.3  26.1   235   16    8   8.5   4.7    6.0  42.8    -1.7    153  0.8
  7500   -2.6  27.3   230   14    7   8.9   4.9    5.9  42.6    -1.8    127  0.6
  7250   -1.9  28.6   230   12    6   9.6   5.2    5.9  42.6    -1.8     99  0.5
  7000   -1.2  29.8   225   10    5   9.6   5.2    5.9  42.5    -1.8     70  0.4
  6750   -0.5  31.1   225    9    5   9.6   5.2    5.8  42.5    -1.8     41  0.2
  6500    0.2  32.4   225    8    4   9.6   5.2    5.8  42.5    -1.8     12  0.1
  6250    0.9  33.6   230    7    4   9.6   5.3    5.8  42.5    -1.9      M    M
  6000    1.7  35.1   230    6    3   9.5   5.2    5.8  42.5    -1.9      M    M
  5750    2.4  36.3   230    4    2   9.7   5.3    5.8  42.4    -1.9      M    M
  5500    3.1  37.6   240    2    1   9.1   5.0    5.8  42.4    -1.9      M    M
  5250    3.8  38.8   350    1    0  11.2   6.1    5.8  42.4    -1.9      M    M
  5000    4.5  40.1   035    3    1   3.5   1.9    5.7  42.3    -2.0      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/03/2015 at 0800 MST          |       03/03/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +15.4  LI... +0.9               | K index... +15.4  LI... 0.0
CAPE... +0.8  CIN... -2.5                  | CAPE... +61.7  CIN... M
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.3 -67.5  250  48 25   2.3   1.3 | -56.3 -69.3  245  52 27   2.9   1.6
 45000 -51.7 -61.1  250  71 37   2.4   1.3 | -51.7 -61.1  245  68 35   3.0   1.7
 40000 -49.2 -56.6  245  80 41   1.6   0.9 | -49.4 -56.9  245  76 39   1.4   0.8
 38000 -48.3 -54.9  245  84 43   0.0   0.0 | -48.6 -55.5  245  80 41   1.2   0.6
 36000 -48.3 -54.9  240  90 46   0.1   0.1 | -47.9 -54.2  245  84 43   1.2   0.7
 34000 -48.2 -54.8  240  97 50   0.2   0.1 | -47.2 -53.0  240  88 45   1.3   0.7
 32000 -46.4 -51.5  240  97 50   3.4   1.9 | -45.5 -49.9  240  88 45   3.4   1.9
 30000 -44.3 -47.7  240  94 48   3.3   1.8 | -43.2 -45.8  240  87 45   3.4   1.9
 29000 -43.1 -45.6  240  91 47   4.7   2.6 | -42.3 -44.1  240  84 43   2.9   1.6
 28000 -41.7 -43.1  240  88 45   4.7   2.6 | -41.4 -42.5  240  79 41   2.9   1.6
 27000 -40.3 -40.5  240  84 43   4.7   2.6 | -40.5 -40.9  240  75 39   2.9   1.6
 26000 -38.9 -38.0  240  80 41   4.8   2.6 | -39.6 -39.3  240  70 36   3.7   2.1
 25000 -37.4 -35.3  245  74 38   4.8   2.6 | -38.5 -37.3  240  64 33   3.8   2.1
 24000 -36.0 -32.8  245  68 35   4.8   2.6 | -37.4 -35.3  240  58 30   3.8   2.1
 23000 -34.4 -29.9  245  62 32   6.6   3.6 | -36.1 -33.0  245  52 27   6.8   3.7
 22000 -32.4 -26.3  245  58 30   6.8   3.7 | -33.9 -29.0  245  49 25   7.3   4.0
 21000 -30.4 -22.7  250  54 28   6.7   3.7 | -31.7 -25.1  245  47 24   7.3   4.0
 20000 -28.9 -20.0  250  48 25   2.1   1.2 | -29.9 -21.8  245  43 22   3.4   1.9
 19500 -28.5 -19.3  255  44 23   2.3   1.3 | -29.4 -20.9  245  39 20   3.6   2.0
 19000 -28.2 -18.8  255  40 21   2.3   1.3 | -28.9 -20.0  245  36 18   3.6   2.0
 18500 -27.8 -18.0  260  36 19   2.4   1.3 | -28.4 -19.1  245  32 16   3.7   2.0
 18000 -27.5 -17.5  260  32 17   3.3   1.8 | -27.8 -18.0  245  28 15   4.5   2.4
 17500 -26.6 -15.9  265  30 16   7.5   4.1 | -26.8 -16.2  250  27 14   7.9   4.3
 17000 -25.5 -13.9  265  29 15   7.4   4.0 | -25.7 -14.3  250  26 14   7.7   4.2
 16500 -24.4 -11.9  265  28 14   7.2   4.0 | -24.5 -12.1  250  26 13   7.9   4.3
 16000 -23.4 -10.1  265  27 14   7.2   4.0 | -23.4 -10.1  250  25 13   7.9   4.3
 15500 -22.3  -8.1  265  27 14   7.6   4.2 | -22.2  -8.0  250  25 13   7.7   4.2
 15000 -20.6  -5.1  260  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -21.1  -6.0  250  24 12   7.6   4.2
 14500 -19.5  -3.1  260  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -19.4  -2.9  250  23 12   8.0   4.4
 14000 -18.3  -0.9  260  24 12   7.7   4.2 | -18.2  -0.8  250  23 12   8.0   4.4
 13500 -17.2   1.0  255  22 12   7.4   4.1 | -17.0   1.4  250  22 11   7.4   4.0
 13000 -16.1   3.0  255  20 10   7.4   4.1 | -15.9   3.4  255  21 11   7.4   4.0
 12500 -15.0   5.0  255  18  9   7.4   4.1 | -14.9   5.2  255  20 10   7.2   4.0
 12000 -13.9   7.0  255  16  8   7.4   4.0 | -13.8   7.2  255  19 10   7.2   3.9
 11500 -12.8   9.0  260  15  8   8.3   4.5 | -12.7   9.1  255  19 10   7.4   4.1
 11000 -11.6  11.1  260  15  8   8.5   4.7 | -11.6  11.1  255  17  9   7.5   4.1
 10500 -10.5  13.1  265  15  8   6.6   3.6 | -10.6  12.9  250  17  9   7.1   3.9
 10250 -10.0  14.0  265  15  8   5.9   3.3 | -10.0  14.0  250  16  8   6.9   3.8
 10000  -9.5  14.9  265  15  8   8.5   4.7 |  -9.5  14.9  250  16  8   8.1   4.5
  9750  -8.8  16.2  265  15  8   8.6   4.7 |  -8.9  16.0  250  16  8   8.3   4.6
  9500  -8.3  17.1  265  15  8   6.0   3.3 |  -8.3  17.1  250  15  8   7.2   4.0
  9250  -7.8  18.0  260  15  8   6.8   3.7 |  -7.8  18.0  250  15  8   7.7   4.2
  9000  -7.4  18.7  260  16  8   6.1   3.3 |  -7.2  19.0  245  15  7   7.0   3.8
  8750  -6.9  19.6  260  16  8   6.6   3.6 |  -6.7  19.9  245  14  7   6.7   3.7
  8500  -6.4  20.5  260  16  8   7.6   4.2 |  -6.2  20.8  245  13  7   7.0   3.9
  8250  -5.8  21.6  260  16  8   7.0   3.9 |  -5.7  21.7  245  12  6   6.9   3.8
  8000  -5.3  22.5  255  16  8   8.3   4.6 |  -5.2  22.6  245  12  6   7.1   3.9
  7750  -4.7  23.5  260  16  8   7.5   4.1 |  -4.7  23.5  245  10  5   6.8   3.7
  7500  -4.2  24.4  260  15  8   5.8   3.2 |  -4.3  24.3  245   9  4   6.2   3.4
  7250  -3.8  25.2  260  15  8   6.1   3.3 |  -3.8  25.2  245   7  4   7.0   3.9
  7000  -3.4  25.9  260  13  7   5.3   2.9 |  -3.2  26.2  245   6  3   9.2   5.1
  6750  -3.0  26.6  260  11  6   4.6   2.5 |  -2.5  27.5  245   6  3  10.1   5.5
  6500  -2.7  27.1  265   9  5   4.5   2.5 |  -1.8  28.8  245   6  3   9.7   5.3
  6250  -2.4  27.7  265   7  4   4.3   2.3 |  -1.1  30.0  245   5  3  10.3   5.7
  6000  -2.1  28.2  265   6  3   4.2   2.3 |  -0.3  31.5  245   5  3  10.8   5.9
  5750  -1.7  28.9  265   4  2   5.7   3.1 |   0.5  32.9  245   5  3  11.0   6.0
  5500  -1.3  29.7  265   3  1   5.9   3.2 |   1.4  34.5  250   5  2  11.1   6.1
  5250  -0.9  30.4  260   3  1   3.5   1.9 |   2.2  36.0  250   5  3  10.6   5.8
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/03/2015 at 1400 MST          |       03/03/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +14.9  LI... +0.2               | K index... +16.6  LI... -0.0
CAPE... +49.0  CIN... M                    | CAPE... +34.4  CIN... -4.7
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.8 -68.4  250  55 28   3.2   1.7 | -55.8 -68.4  245  54 28   2.5   1.4
 45000 -50.8 -59.4  245  68 35   3.3   1.8 | -52.1 -61.8  250  65 34   2.5   1.4
 40000 -49.4 -56.9  250  70 36   0.7   0.4 | -49.7 -57.5  250  60 31   1.4   0.7
 38000 -48.8 -55.8  250  70 36   1.9   1.1 | -48.8 -55.8  255  58 30   1.8   1.0
 36000 -47.7 -53.9  245  72 37   1.9   1.0 | -47.8 -54.0  250  58 30   1.8   1.0
 34000 -46.6 -51.9  245  75 38   1.9   1.0 | -46.7 -52.1  250  58 30   1.8   1.0
 32000 -45.1 -49.2  240  75 39   2.8   1.5 | -45.5 -49.9  250  57 29   2.3   1.3
 30000 -43.2 -45.8  240  75 39   2.8   1.5 | -44.1 -47.4  250  56 29   2.3   1.3
 29000 -42.4 -44.3  240  73 37   2.5   1.4 | -43.4 -46.1  245  55 28   2.0   1.1
 28000 -41.7 -43.1  240  69 36   2.5   1.4 | -42.7 -44.9  245  54 28   2.1   1.1
 27000 -40.9 -41.6  240  66 34   2.5   1.4 | -42.0 -43.6  245  53 27   2.0   1.1
 26000 -40.1 -40.2  240  62 32   3.4   1.9 | -41.3 -42.3  245  52 27   4.4   2.4
 25000 -39.0 -38.2  240  56 29   3.5   1.9 | -39.9 -39.8  245  49 25   4.6   2.5
 24000 -38.0 -36.4  245  51 26   3.5   1.9 | -38.5 -37.3  245  47 24   4.6   2.5
 23000 -36.8 -34.2  245  46 24   6.1   3.4 | -37.1 -34.8  245  44 23   5.3   2.9
 22000 -34.8 -30.6  245  44 23   6.8   3.7 | -35.5 -31.9  245  40 21   5.5   3.0
 21000 -32.7 -26.9  245  42 22   6.8   3.7 | -33.8 -28.8  245  36 19   5.6   3.1
 20000 -30.8 -23.4  245  40 20   6.0   3.3 | -31.9 -25.4  245  33 17   8.0   4.4
 19500 -29.9 -21.8  245  38 19   6.0   3.3 | -30.8 -23.4  245  32 16   7.9   4.4
 19000 -29.0 -20.2  245  36 19   6.0   3.3 | -29.6 -21.3  245  31 16   7.9   4.4
 18500 -28.1 -18.6  245  34 18   6.1   3.3 | -28.4 -19.1  245  30 15   7.9   4.4
 18000 -27.2 -17.0  240  32 17   6.2   3.4 | -27.2 -17.0  245  28 15   7.9   4.4
 17500 -26.2 -15.2  245  31 16   7.0   3.8 | -26.0 -14.8  245  28 14   7.9   4.3
 17000 -25.2 -13.4  245  30 15   6.9   3.8 | -24.9 -12.8  250  27 14   7.9   4.4
 16500 -24.1 -11.4  245  29 15   7.3   4.0 | -23.7 -10.7  250  26 14   7.4   4.1
 16000 -23.0  -9.4  245  28 14   7.3   4.0 | -22.6  -8.7  250  26 13   7.4   4.1
 15500 -21.9  -7.4  250  27 14   7.4   4.1 | -21.5  -6.7  255  26 13   7.7   4.2
 15000 -20.8  -5.4  250  26 14   7.5   4.1 | -20.4  -4.7  255  25 13   7.9   4.3
 14500 -19.2  -2.6  255  26 13   7.5   4.1 | -19.2  -2.6  260  25 13   7.8   4.3
 14000 -18.1  -0.6  255  26 13   7.4   4.1 | -18.0  -0.4  260  25 13   7.7   4.3
 13500 -16.9   1.6  255  26 13   7.8   4.3 | -16.3   2.7  260  24 13   7.9   4.3
 13000 -15.8   3.6  260  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -15.1   4.8  260  24 12   7.9   4.3
 12500 -14.6   5.7  260  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -14.0   6.8  260  24 12   7.8   4.3
 12000 -13.5   7.7  260  24 12   7.8   4.3 | -12.8   9.0  260  24 12   7.8   4.3
 11500 -12.3   9.9  260  23 12   7.8   4.3 | -11.7  10.9  260  23 12   7.5   4.1
 11000 -11.2  11.8  260  22 11   7.8   4.3 | -10.6  12.9  255  22 11   7.5   4.1
 10500 -10.0  14.0  255  21 11   7.4   4.0 |  -9.5  14.9  255  21 11   7.1   3.9
 10250  -9.5  14.9  255  19 10   7.3   4.0 |  -9.0  15.8  255  20 10   7.1   3.9
 10000  -9.0  15.8  255  18  9   7.9   4.3 |  -8.5  16.7  255  19 10   7.6   4.2
  9750  -8.3  17.1  255  17  9   8.3   4.5 |  -7.9  17.8  255  18  9   8.1   4.4
  9500  -7.8  18.0  250  16  8   8.0   4.4 |  -7.3  18.9  255  16  8   8.0   4.4
  9250  -7.2  19.0  250  15  7   8.3   4.6 |  -6.7  19.9  250  15  8   8.3   4.6
  9000  -6.6  20.1  250  13  7   7.3   4.0 |  -6.1  21.0  250  14  7   7.2   3.9
  8750  -6.1  21.0  245  12  6   7.1   3.9 |  -5.6  21.9  250  13  7   7.5   4.1
  8500  -5.5  22.1  245  11  5   8.2   4.5 |  -5.0  23.0  250  12  6   9.0   5.0
  8250  -5.0  23.0  245   9  5   7.2   3.9 |  -4.4  24.1  250  11  6   8.3   4.6
  8000  -4.4  24.1  245   8  4  10.4   5.7 |  -3.7  25.3  250  10  5   9.7   5.3
  7750  -3.5  25.7  240   7  4  11.2   6.1 |  -3.0  26.6  245   9  5   9.2   5.0
  7500  -2.8  27.0  240   7  4   8.6   4.7 |  -2.4  27.7  245   8  4   7.5   4.1
  7250  -2.1  28.2  240   7  4   9.4   5.2 |  -1.8  28.8  240   7  4   8.0   4.4
  7000  -1.4  29.5  240   7  4  10.0   5.5 |  -1.3  29.7  235   7  4   8.6   4.7
  6750  -0.7  30.7  240   7  4  10.2   5.6 |  -0.6  30.9  235   7  3   9.4   5.2
  6500   0.1  32.2  240   7  3   9.6   5.3 |   0.1  32.2  230   6  3   9.2   5.1
  6250   0.8  33.4  240   7  3  10.4   5.7 |   0.8  33.4  230   6  3   9.8   5.4
  6000   1.6  34.9  240   6  3  11.0   6.0 |   1.6  34.9  230   6  3  10.2   5.6
  5750   2.4  36.3  240   6  3   9.6   5.3 |   2.3  36.1  230   6  3   9.5   5.2
  5500   3.1  37.6  240   6  3  10.0   5.5 |   2.9  37.2  225   6  3   8.3   4.5
  5250   3.9  39.0  240   6  3  13.5   7.4 |   3.5  38.3  230   6  3   6.5   3.6
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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