Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS03 KWNS 290402
SWODY3
SPC AC 290401

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms capable of hail and wind are possible
Monday afternoon and evening across northern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move eastward across the south central
Canadian provinces with 25-30 kt midlevel flow nearing the ND border
into Tuesday morning. During the day on Monday, a low pressure
trough and attendant wind shift will affect ND, providing a focus
for storms. Given the presence of a surface high over the Midwest,
low-level moisture will not be very robust, with dewpoints largely
in the 50s F to near 60 F.

To the south, an area of rain and storms will gradually shift
southward over the southern High Plains, where easterly surface
winds will maintain moisture and interact with any residual outflow
from antecedent storms. As a result, rain and storms are likely from
eastern NM into western TX, but with little if any severe threat.

Elsewhere, scattered daytime storms are again likely over FL south
of a weak boundary and where moisture will remain abundant.

...Northern ND into northwest MN...
Strong heating near the low-pressure trough along with cool
temperatures aloft will yield a very steep lapse rate environment
which will maximize instability despite low levels of moisture
overall. Forecast soundings ahead of the wind shift indicate MUCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg will be present, but with little shear. However,
isolated storms are likely, with marginally severe hail or wind as
they travel eastward during the evening.

..Jewell.. 07/29/2017

$$



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