Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 310728
SWODY3
SPC AC 310727

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER SRN CANADA AND THE
NRN U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH INITIALLY PROGGED TO EXTEND
ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ENEWD ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE FARTHER S...A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WITH RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER BOTH THE SWRN
AND ERN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT SHIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
FARTHER W...LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS IS
EXPECTED AS WLYS ALOFT PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...S TX...
AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY EWD ACROSS TX DURING THE
DAY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY ACROSS TX /OWING
TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD/ONGOING PRECIPITATION/ SUGGESTS
LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.  ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS DEEP S TX...WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER WSWLY FLOW ALOFT
MAY LINGER ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM.  WITH LOW-LEVEL
SELYS BENEATH THE WSWLYS ALOFT...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/WEAK
SUPERCELL STORMS MAY SUPPORT LOW-END RISK FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THUS WARRANTING INCLUSION OF LOW /5%/ SEVERE
RISK IN THIS REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE DIFFUSE COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...VERY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
PORTION OF THE REGION...AND VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT FARTHER SW INTO THE
OH VALLEY...SUGGEST THAT SEVERE RISK SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST.

...MID MO VALLEY VICINITY...
MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY SUBTLE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
NEB/SD BORDER AREA DURING THE DAY...AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EWD AND LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS KS/NEB.
HOWEVER...PRIND THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED TO
AFTER-DARK ELEVATED STORMS IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET.  LIMITED INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED LAYER N OF THE WARM FRONT
SUGGESTS LITTLE IF ANY SEVERE RISK.

..GOSS.. 05/31/2016

$$



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