Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 310620
SWODY3
SPC AC 310620

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0120 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
NEW YORK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

...NY TO OZARK PLATEAU...

UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 03/00Z AS PRIMARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
TRANSLATES TOWARD SRN QUEBEC.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
FRONT TO MIGRATE INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE FRONTAL
ZONE...CONVECTIVE-WISE...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT TSTMS LIKELY
ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG THE
FRONT AND SCT STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING/LAPSE RATES...THOUGH
DIABATIC HEATING IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
THAT SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST CONVECTION.  ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE
ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...AND EARLY-DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...SHOULD DO
SO WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.  WILL INTRODUCE 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AS IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR HOW MUCH BUOYANCY WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY GIVEN THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 08/31/2014



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