Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS03 KWNS 020817
SWODY3
SPC AC 020816

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST FRI DEC 02 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA ON SUNDAY.

...TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA...

SOUTHERN-STREAM CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THROUGH
NORTHERN MEXICO LATER SUNDAY APPROACHING SOUTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH THE
GULF COASTAL AREA. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATER SUNDAY AS CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF COAST
AREA. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE FROM SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST
STATES. A SMALL WARM SECTOR MAY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS SOUTH
LOUISIANA. HOWEVER...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO
TENDENCY FOR THE LOW-LEVEL JET TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY.

..DIAL.. 12/02/2016

$$



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