Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
ACUS03 KWNS 010725
SWODY3
SPC AC 010724

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

...UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID MO VALLEY...

SEWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NRN
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE WEAK SFC
ANTI-CYCLONE TO BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...FORCING
FRONTAL ZONE TO A POSITION FROM SERN MN...SWWD INTO ERN NEB AT PEAK
HEATING.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
THIS REGION...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO LATE-AFTERNOON/EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND
SHIFT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 22-23Z AND
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO AID SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
FAIRLY HOT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY.
GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY DRIFT
SOUTHWARD.

...SWRN U.S...

WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN NV BY 04/12Z.  SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SURGE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
1.5-2 INCH PW ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SRN
NV.  INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DAY2 CONVECTION AND THE
RESIDUAL CLOUD-DEBRIS FIELD.  IF STRONG HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN
PROXIMITY TO STRONGER SLY MEAN FLOW THEN ROBUST TSTMS COULD EVOLVE.
INFLUENCE OF DAY2 CONVECTION REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE
SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2014




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.