Tropical Cyclone Discussion
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611
WTPZ41 KNHC 221450
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Estelle has been lacking any deep convection for about 15 hours,
and is now designated a post-tropical cyclone.  The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the
latest Dvorak CI estimate from TAFB based on weakening rules.  The
cyclone should gradually spin down over the next couple of days
as it moves over cool waters and dissipate in 48 to 72 hours.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 kt, and this
motion should continue until dissipation as the cyclone is steered
by the subtropical ridge centered well to its northeast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 21.8N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan




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