Marine/Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory
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000
WTPZ22 KNHC 201434
TCMEP2

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014
1500 UTC WED AUG 20 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 121.2W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 121.1W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 121.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





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