Marine/Aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory
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000
WTPZ24 KNHC 011432
TCMEP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 139.0W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 138.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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