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000
FXUS66 KHNX 152151
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
251 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRANSIT THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP LOWER TEMPERATURES
THOROUGHOUT THE REGION AS WELL AS INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR A
RAINSHOWER THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COOL CHANGE IS NOT QUITE AS PROFOUND IN THE SJ VLY BECAUSE THE
SHALLOW INTRUSION OF MARINE AIR LAST NIGHT HAS MIXED OUT PRETTY
WELL THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BE ADVISED...THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER THANKS TO A MORE ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW AND A
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR THE REMAINDER
OF CENTRAL CA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE TROUGH WILL NOT ONLY BE PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDS BUT
ALSO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. IN THESE
AREAS...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN LAUNCHED ACCORDINGLY FOR THIS
EVENING WITH AN EXPECTED RECURRENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP...SPRINKLES
ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE SJ VLY THURSDAY AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA. THE MOST OPPORTUNE TIME FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP...HOWEVER...
WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA. IN THE SJ VLY...
A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARD THE EAST SIDE COULD RECEIVE UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHEN SIERRA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ENHANCED
BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT. EVEN IN THESE REGIONS...LITTLE MORE THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIP IS LIKELY FROM THIS SYSTEM. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY BANK UP ALONG THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
IS POSSIBLE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE ONLY REMNANT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE NEAR
THE SIERRA CREST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
EXPERIENCES A CLEARING TREND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN THE KERN COUNTY DESERT YET ON
FRIDAY WHERE WINDS MIGHT STILL GUST TO ADVISORY LEVEL RIGHT BELOW
THE PASSES.

MORE NOTABLY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER DURING THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN THE 70S IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
SJ VLY THURSDAY AND MUCH OF THE ENTIRE SJ VLY FRIDAY. AN IMPRESSIONABLE
WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THEREAFTER...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUILDS INTO
CA. MAX TEMPS MONDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 90S IN THE SJ VLY...LOWER
FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT. VERY WARM WEATHER WILL ONLY MAKE
A BRIEF COMEBACK THIS TIME...HOWEVER. AS EARLY AS TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO TREND LOWER AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. FURTHER COOLING
IS LIKELY NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND A RECURRENCE
OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN THE KERN COUNTY
DESERT.


&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WIND GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS AROUND THE MOJAVE AIRPORT AREA AND
WEST OF LOS BANOS THROUGH 07Z THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
SIERRA FOOTHILLS WITH AREAS OF POSSIBLE MTN OBSCURED IFR CONDITIONS
NORTH OF KINGS CANYON NP AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-15      102:1927     60:1953     70:2006     42:1955
KFAT 05-16      103:1970     63:2011     71:2008     40:1894
KFAT 05-17      106:2009     64:2011     73:2008     44:1974

KBFL 05-15      103:1927     60:1953     71:1972     36:1918
KBFL 05-16      105:1970     63:1962     71:2008     39:1918
KBFL 05-17      105:2009     68:1998     73:2009     41:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR THE REGION BELOW
WALKER PASS AND TEHACHAPI PASS IN CAZ098-099.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT THROUGH AND BELOW
PACHECO PASS IN CAZ089.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD