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000
FXUS66 KHNX 231043
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
343 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS BRINGING A
COOL ONSHORE FLOW TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE PAC NW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US IS KEEPING THE
PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WE HAVE IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SIERRA ON TUESDAY AFTN
AND EVENING AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. WE ARE PRETTY MUCH GOING WITH CLIMO POPS FOR THE SIERRA ON
TUESDAY.

GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY AND IS
BRINGING IN A CLOSED LOW CENTER ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE PRECIP TO THE SIERRA. WE ARE NOT BUYING INTO THIS SOLN ATTM
AND ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF DUE TO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE ECMWF IS BRINGING
A TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION AND IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFS.

H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND EXPECT TEMPS
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY THROUGH AND
JUST BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES NEAR MOJAVE. CHANNELING
THROUGH THE PACHECO PASS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN..BUT ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN JUST BELOW ADV LEVELS OF GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS OR GREATER CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH AND BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES OF KERN COUNTY THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-23      103:1967     65:1916     71:2000     44:1960
KFAT 05-24      103:1943     64:1916     68:2001     41:1953
KFAT 05-25      102:1890     59:1906     68:1890     42:1980

KBFL 05-23      107:1904     67:2010     73:2000     44:1903
KBFL 05-24      107:1982     68:1980     76:1982     41:1916
KBFL 05-25      106:1982     58:2008     77:1982     39:1893
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING CAZ095-098-099.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JDB
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD