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000
FXUS66 KLOX 150032 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
530 PM PDT FRI JUN 14 2013

***UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION***

.SYNOPSIS...

A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL BRING A COOL DOWN AND MORE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
AREA ON SATURDAY. THE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE COAST AND COASTAL VALLEYS THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MINOR
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. A MORE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP CAN BE EXPECTED LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
EXCITEMENT LEVELS PRETTY LOW THIS AFTERNOON. BROAD WEST COAST
TROFING ASSOCIATED WITH A PAC NW UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. MARINE LAYER HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 1800 FEET THIS AFTERNOON
BUT A WEAK EDDY WILL SPIN UP TONIGHT AND LIFT IT TO ABOUT 2200 FEET
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL COVER MOST OF THE COASTS AND VLYS (SAVE THE
SANTA CLARITA) OVERNIGHT. ONSHORE GRADIENTS WILL PEAK NEAR 9 TO KDAG
AND 6 TO KBFL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS
AT THE BEACHES. THE GRADIENTS RELAX SOME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER CLEARING. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL SOME SATURDAY
WITH THE GOOD ONSHORE PUSH AND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BLO NORMAL. A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF WARMING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENTS
RELAX AND THE EARLIER DISSIPATION OF THE LOW CLOUDS ALLOWS MORE
SUNSHINE.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENTS TREND OFFSHORE QUICKLY AND BY MORNING
THERE WILL BE DECENT OFFSHORE PUSH FROM THE NORTH. THERE COULD BE
SUNDOWNER ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND SOME GUSTS DOWN THE I-5
CORRIDOR THAT WILL FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS NORTH
PUSH WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS OUT OF THE VLYS XCP THE SANTA YNEZ.
THERE WILL BE A NICE WARM UP ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
TYPICAL JUNE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE XTND PERIOD. BOTH THE
EC AND THE GFS AGREE THAT DRY SW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EC DIGS A LITTLE TROF TROF THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
WHICH IF IT COMES TRUE WILL MEAN A DEEPER MARINE LAYER AND COOLER
TEMPS BUT THE GFS INDICATES THAT NOT MUCH WILL HAPPEN. ALL IN ALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUD PATTERN. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BUT MAY RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FRIDAY AS
HGTS RISE SOME AS THE UPPER LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...15/0015Z...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
LOW CLOUDS AND LIFR/IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AND
ADJACENT VALLEY AIRFIELDS FROM EARLY THIS EVENING TO LATE TONIGHT
THEN CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE SAT MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LOW CIGS SHOULD LINGER THRU THE AFTERNOON AT
KOXR. THERE IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER
THRU THE AFTERNOON AT KSBA. GUSTY SW WINDS AT KPMD AND KWJF WILL
LINGER THRU EARLY THIS EVENING THEN INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE WITH THE CURRENT TAF. LOW CLOUDS AND
IFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 05Z THEN LINGER THRU
ABOUT 19Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD MOVE BACK INTO THE AIRFIELD AGAIN BY 04Z SAT EVENING.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE WITH THE CURRENT TAF. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS 11Z-17Z AND MVFR VSBYS 17Z-20Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
IFR CIGS COULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD AT THE ONSET OF LOW CIGS AROUND
11Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SIRARD
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

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