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000
FXUS63 KLSX 160858
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
358 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE RAIN HAS EITHER BECOME LIGHTER
OR MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE.  THE BETTER THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD
ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT SEWD WITH TIME TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC
TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY SEWD...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS SERN MO AND SWRN IL THIS AFTN AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NERN MO.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS
NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...BUT STILL CLOSE
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

GKS

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

(TONIGHT - MONDAY)

FLAT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS GIVING US A
CONTINUATION OF THE ACTIVE WX PATTERN AND ADDITIONAL OPPORTUINITIES
FOR RAIN.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TODAY SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING EARLY THIS EVENING.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS
WWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS WHERE THE NEXT MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
EVENING.  THIS MCS IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO TRACK E-SEWD AND LARGELY
THRU SRN MO ON MONDAY BUT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ENOUGH BROADSCALE
LIFT ON ITS POLEWARD SIDE AS PART OF A LARGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU
AND SFC CDFNT...THAT LIKELY AND HIGHER POPS STILL ARE WARRANTED FOR
AREAS NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND S.  MODELS HAVE TRENDED A TAD
SLOWER IN EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ARE
JUSTIFIED FOR AREAS S AND E OF STL METRO AREA.

CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPR 70S-LO 80S ON MONDAY...AND THIS IS ABOUT 3-5F BELOW MOS FCSTS.

(TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY)

A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD WILL FOLLOW WITH SFC HI PRES DOMINATING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND NW FLOW ALOFT.  MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW AVERAGE.

(THURSDAY)

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE HI PLAINS BUT
BEFORE IT GETS TOO STRONG...MODELS HAVE A RIDGE-RUNNER SHORTWAVE
SLIPPING THRU AND AFFECTING OUR AREA.  WE HAVE HAD CHANCE POPS IN
THERE FROM BEFORE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A SFC WRMFNT ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THRU...AND SO NET CHANGE TO FCST IS VIRTUALLY NONE WITH LOSS OF
SFC WRMFNT BUT GAINING WHAT THE MODELS DEPICT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WAVE.  TEMPS EXPECTED TO EDGE CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

(FRIDAY - SATURDAY)

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS WITH
590 DM HEIGHTS BY NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE FA.  IF IT VERIFIES...THIS
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY MEAN HIGHS OF AT LEAST 90F AND A DRIER PERIOD
AS SYSTEMS GET DEFLECTED AROUND TO THE N.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. MVFR AND POSSIBLE SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. MODELS SLOWLY SINK THE FRONT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...WHICH COULD KEEP SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND ALL
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...
RAIN AND AT LEAST VCTS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINAL THIS EVENING...AND
PROBABLY ALL NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH AND THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY BECOME PREDOMINANT IF
STEADY RAIN MOVES OVERHEAD.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX