000
FXUS63 KMQT 252001
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
401 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF HIGH
AMPLITUDE 5H RDG CENTERED OVER MN WILL MAINTAIN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS SOME WAA
MID-HIGH CLOUDS FM SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS SPILLING INTO THE WRN
THIRD OF UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. INLAND HIGHS TODAY HAVE GENERALLY
TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S TONIGHT PERHAPS EVEN
UPPER 20S AT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.35IN OR
AROUND 40 PERCENT OF NORMAL. EXPECT CLOUDS OVER THE WEST TO THIN OUT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING MID-LVL SUBSIDENCE.

SUNDAY...AFTER A CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY COLUMN
WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY. INTERIOR LOCATIONS SHOULD RISE
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 70F. LAKE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN...KEEPING LAKESIDE LOCATIONS COOL IN THE
AFTN. DRY COLUMN AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO INLAND DWPTS FALLING
IN THE AFTN INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S...RESULTING IN AFTN RH AS LOW AS
AROUND 20 PCT. FORTUNATELY...WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT...KEEPING
FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK DESPITE DRY AND WARMER DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AFTER A QUIET STRETCH OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER...MUCH WARMER AND
ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHRA/TSRA IS ON THE WAY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER PATTERN STILL SHOWS NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FLANK OF TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
CANADA. NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM PUSHING INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY IS RIDGE ALOFT WHICH FLATTENS WITH TIME AS SHORTWAVES WITHIN
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH EJECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON MEMORIAL DAY THOUGH AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DRIVES ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA BY TUESDAY THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. NOT SURE HOW MUCH SHRA WILL MAKE IT
INTO FAR WEST CWA LATE MEMORIAL DAY AFTN AS GREATEST FORCING FOR
SHRA/TSRA AND STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
KEPT SMALL CHANCE POPS IN OVER FAR WEST CWA 18Z-24Z MONDAY. AS
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION H85 JET
VEERING SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT THETA-E RIDGE TOWARD NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN. H85-H3 THICKNESS LINES IMPLY THAT
SHRA/TSRA FORMING UPSTREAM OF UPR MICHIGAN MONDAY NIGHT WOULD TEND
TO PEEL OFF SOUTH AS THEY RIDE TOWARD CWA. STRONGER H85-H7 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SUGGESTS GREATEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WOULD BE MORE OVER THE SOUTH CWA. ADDITIONAL MAXIMUM
OF SHRA/TSRA MAY OCCUR OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA AS WELL CLOSER TO THE
TRACK OF LEAD SHORTWAVE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE GETTING
WARMER WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY INTO THE 70S MOST AREAS AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY WITH DWPNTS IN THE 50S.

WARM FRONT SHOULD BE FIRMLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RESULTING IN MULTIPLE CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA AS SOUTHERN EDGE OF
WESTERLIES/H5 WINDS IS OVER THE REGION. SEEMS THAT THERE WILL BE
GOOD SHOT AT AT LEAST A COUPLE EPISODES OF ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA AS
SHORTWAVES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA AND SINCE THE 850-300MB THICKNESS
IS ORIENTED ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AS THE
AREA IS ON EDGE OF MLCAPE RESERVOIR OVER 1500J/KG. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD ALSO GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PRESENT AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS. WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH.

UNCLEAR ON STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGHING THAT RELOADS OVER WESTERN
CONUS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ECMWF VERY AMPLIFIED...GFS AND GEM-NH
NOT AS MUCH. LESS AMPLIFICATION ALLOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN ACTIVE AS HIGHEST BLYR MOISTURE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION AS WELL AS ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WOULD BE ABLE
TO FLOW INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SHARPER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP MAJORITY
OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LOCKED UP OVER THE PLAINS WITH RIDGING
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A MODEL CONSENSUS IS GOOD FOR NOW AND KEEPS LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EVEN
WITH THE SHARPER SOLUTION FROM ECMWF...STILL ENOUGH WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE AROUND TO PROMOTE MORE PULSE TYPE TSRA AS TEMPS WILL BE
INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLE LOWER 80S AND DWPNTS WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE 60 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. WEAK COOL FRONT TRIES TO WORK
SOUTH ACROSS UPR LAKES NEXT WEEKEND. CERTAINLY LOOKING MORE LIKE
SUMMER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. SOME
SCT-BKN CLOUDS FM 5-10KFT COULD AFFECT ALL SITES MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...WITH
DAYTIME LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING AT SAW AND CMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH WEAK PRES GRADIENTS AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS