000
FXUS63 KMQT 250847
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
447 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE...AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE 500MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS W MN EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAINS NEARLY STEADY.

TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH THE 850MB
POCKET OF 4-5C AIR SLIDING FARTHER INTO THE THE W HALF OF THE CWA.
WITH THE HELP OF LIGHT S FLOW AT THE SFC...THE LAKE BREEZE OVER THE
FAR W SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MOVING MORE THAN A FEW MILES
INLAND FROM IWD THROUGH ONTONAGON AND RED RIDGE. THIS SHOULD SFC
TEMPS TO RISE IN THE THE LOW TO MID 60S AGAIN. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE CLOUD COVER...AND THE POTENTIAL SHADING FROM THE
3-5KFT CEILINGS THAT SHOULD LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS INLAND UPPER MI. EXPECT BRIEF INCREASED
WINDS...TOPPING OUT 10-15KTS AS THE STRONGER LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
BREEZE PUSHES INTO N CENTRAL AND EASTERN UPPER MI. THE DRIEST AIR
LINGERS OVER THE E THIRD OF UPPER MI...WITH RH BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
25-30 PERCENT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FROST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY INLAND AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND E UPPER MI. DROPPED TEMPS A BIT MORE OVER THE CENTRAL
TO E PORTIONS OF THE CWA...GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS...LACK OF CLOUD
COVER...AND PW VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 0.26 AND 0.33IN /40-50
PERCENT OF NORMAL/.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AFTER QUIET WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR TSTMS MAY BE SHAPING UP FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MON NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THRU
THE WEEK AS MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS WHILE A
TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL PLACE THE UPPER
LAKES IN THE PATH OF SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF AND THEN
FORCED AROUND THE SE RIDGE. OVERALL LOOK OF THE PATTERN SUGGESTS WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST SEVERE STORMS OF THE YEAR AT SOME POINT MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK. WITH RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SE...IT WILL BECOME MORE
SUMMERLIKE HERE WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH DWPTS
ON THE RISE AS WELL...LEADING TO INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON.

BEGINNING SUN...AFTER A CHILLY START...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE UNDER A DRY
COLUMN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE QUICKLY SUN. INTERIOR LOCATIONS
SHOULD RISE WELL INTO THE 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS TOPPING OUT AROUND
70F. LAKE BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOARD...KEEPING LAKESIDE
LOCATIONS COOL IN THE AFTN. DRY COLUMN AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO
DWPTS FALLING IN THE AFTN. UTILIZING EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHT...DWPTS
AWAY FROM MARINE MODIFIED AIR SHOULD TUMBLE INTO THE MID/UPPER
20S...RESULTING IN AFTN RH AS LOW AS AROUND 20PCT. FORTUNATELY...
WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...KEEPING FIRE WX CONCERNS IN CHECK
FROM WHERE THEY COULD BE ON THIS KIND OF WARM/DRY DAY.

ON MEMORIAL DAY...MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE AREA LATE.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST SHORTWAVES EJECTING
FROM THE DEVELOPING WRN CONUS TROF WILL CUT THRU THE RIDGE. THE
ECMWF HAS HAD GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH A SLOWER TIMING...BUT IS NOW
SHOWING A FASTER TREND...SUGGESTING PCPN COULD REACH KIWD LATE IN
THE AFTN. THE GEM/GFS/UKMET ARE FASTER AND SHOW PCPN SPREADING INTO
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN. GIVEN TRENDS AND MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
DEPICTING PCPN REACHING WRN UPPER...WILL BEGIN TRENDING FCST TOWARD
FASTER PCPN ARRIVAL. FOR NOW...WILL ONLY BRING SCHC POPS INTO FAR
WRN UPPER MI MON AFTN FOR STARTERS. WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER...
MAX TEMPS FOR MEMORIAL DAY SHOULD END UP FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUNDAY
HIGHS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE CONUS NEXT
WEEK WHILE A TROF DOMINATES THE WRN CONUS. WITH RIDGE OVER THE SE...
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE WRN TROF WILL BE FORCED THRU THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE 2 OR
3 SHORTWAVES IN THE TUE-THU TIME FRAME THAT WILL AFFECT THE FCST
AREA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AS ALWAYS...TIMING/TRACK OF THESE
FEATURES WON`T BE CERTAIN UNTIL THEY GET INTO THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FCST. FOR NOW...WITH ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTING AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC SHRA/TSRA...WILL MAINTAIN
GENERALLY HIGHER CHC POPS. ECMWF HAS SHOWN SOME CONSISTENCY FOR
EXTENSION OF THE SE RIDGE SHARPENING UP THRU THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AROUND THU. IF SO...PCPN CHANCES MAY DIMINISH FOR A TIME THU/FRI.
WHILE THERE WON`T BE ANY LONG DURATION PCPN EVENTS NEXT WEEK...
THERE`S A GOOD CHANCE THAT ALL OF FCST AREA WILL SEE SOME PCPN AT
SOME POINT BTWN TUE AND FRI. ALONG WITH THE PCPN CHANCES...IT WILL
TURN WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID DURING THE WEEK. THE
WARMTH/MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASING INSTABILITY...AND ANY
SHORTWAVES PASSING THRU THE AREA SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SVR TSTMS OF THE
YEAR SOMETIME IN THE MID/LATE WEEK PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 447 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

EXPECT VFR CEILINGS AND VIS TO REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION. A FEW TO MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 5KFT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR IWD AND SAW LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS AROUND 10KTS OR
LESS...STRONGEST WITH THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AT SAW THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

WITH BROAD PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLIDING NEAR THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 25KTS TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MUCH OF HUDSON BAY WILL SLOWLY EXIT TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
QUEBEC SUNDAY EVENING...AND PUSH OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON MEMORIAL
DAY. A SLOW MOVING/DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WILL PUSH TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF