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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 172249
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
849 AM CHST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP-LAYER RIDGING IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MARIANAS.
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PLAYERS IN SIGHT FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS...SO
NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID EDITS WERE NEEDED. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIANAS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY IN
SPEED. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. SURF
ON EAST FACING REEFS WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
SWELL WILL DECREASE AND THIS WILL LOWER SURF EVEN FURTHER AND
CAUSE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO BECOME LOW. WITH DECREASING SWELL
AND WINDS THE COMBINED SEAS...AT 3 TO 5 FEET...WILL REMAIN
LOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

 &&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ITCZ REMAINS ACTIVE OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA TODAY. THERE COULD BE A
BREAK IN ACTIVITY FOR MAJURO THIS AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THE
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
INDICATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ITCZ WILL AFFECT A ZONE IN
EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM 8N TO 5N. HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS SHOULD BE OVER KOSRAE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WET
CONDITIONS MAY LAST INTO MONDAY FOR KOSRAE. BESIDES THE MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE MARSHALLS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
RATHER BENIGN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD INTO YAP STATE AND PALAU
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS TO YAP TODAY AND
KOROR THROUGH TONIGHT. THE OVERALL PATTERN SETTLES DOWN A BIT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS GENTLE EAST TRADE WINDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
RETURN TO THE REGION. FOR CHUUK...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ITCZ IS EXPECTED TO STAY LARGELY TO THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST FOR THE
REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS