Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201001
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
401 AM MDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE STREAMING INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES
FOR TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS TO THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY. HAZY CONDITIONS FROM SMOKE AND FINE DUST WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
TOMORROW. DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA...DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SPLIT BETWEEN A MOIST REGIME OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE
TEENS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO WHILE 40S AND 50S ARE PRESENT TO
THE EAST. MOISTURE IS BEING FED INTO THE REGION BY A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. A PERSISTENT DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW IS PREVENTING
MOISTURE FROM GETTING INTO THE BOOT HEEL AND GILA REGION OF NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING VERY DRY CONDITIONS THERE WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIC FOR
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY FROM LAS CRUCES AND EASTWARD WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST WEST OF A DEMING TO TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES LINE.
RAIN AMOUNTS FROM AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SPOTTY WITH A FEW AREAS GETTING MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS EACH DAY.
WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...INCREASING
IN THE AFTERNOON. VISIBILITIES WILL BE HAZY AS A RESULT OF SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL WILDFIRES AND FINE PARTICULATES STIRRED UP BY
PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL AND VERY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER 100`S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 80`S AND LOWER 90`S IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AND
STRENGTHENING OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN CHANGE
WILL SHUT OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT HAS BEEN HAMPERING FIRE
FIGHTING EFFORTS IN THE GILA REGION...BUT IT WILL NOT BRING MUCH
MOISTURE EITHER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...
FUELED BY RESIDUAL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH...WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND
BE MORE FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE VERY WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 100 ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER HUDSPETH AND OTERO COUNTIES. HAZY CONDITIONS
FROM SMOKE AND FINE PARTICULATES WILL LOWER VSBY TO 4SM FOR
PERIODS OF THE DAY. WINDS GENERALLY SW-W 10-15 KTS AFT 17Z WITH A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS IN THE GILA REGION WILL BE
STRONGER AT 15-25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN AREAS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY VALUES AND POOR RH
RECOVERY INTO THE TEENS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SUOTHWEST AND INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 MPH OVER MOST
LOCATIONS. WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE GILA WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 25
MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
GILA REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BRING
MORE MOISTURE TO EASTERN PORTIONS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE SIERRA MADRE
AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED LATE DAY STORMS FROM THE BOOTHEEL TO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO. LITTLE MOISTURE INFLUX IS
EXPECTED FOR THE GILA REGION. MINIMUM RH TOMORROW RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO NEAR 20% EAST.
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY 4 OR 5 THURSDAY...EXCEPT 6 OVER THE GILA
REGION. HAINES INDICES WILL DECREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                102  77 101  77 100 /  10  10  10  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           97  72  99  73  99 /  20  30  20  20  20
LAS CRUCES             101  72 100  73 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
ALAMOGORDO             102  69  98  70 102 /  10  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              79  51  78  52  79 /  30  20  20  20  20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES  102  74 101  75 102 /   0  10  10  10  10
SILVER CITY             94  61  95  61  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEMING                 103  68 102  69 103 /   0  10  10  10  10
LORDSBURG              100  68 101  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10
WEST EL PASO METRO     101  80 100  80 100 /  10  10  10  10  20
DELL CITY               97  66  98  67  99 /  20  30  20  20  20
FORT HANCOCK           105  76 103  77 104 /  20  30  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              92  63  91  63  93 /  20  20  20  20  20
FABENS                 102  73 100  74 102 /  20  20  20  20  20
SANTA TERESA           101  76 100  75 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
WHITE SANDS HQ          99  73  98  74 100 /  10  10  10  10  10
JORNADA RANGE          102  66 100  67 101 /  10  10  10  10  10
HATCH                   98  70  97  71  98 /   0  10  10  10  10
COLUMBUS               102  71 100  72 100 /   0  10  10  10  10
OROGRANDE              101  71  99  72 102 /  10  20  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 88  59  86  60  86 /  30  20  20  20  20
MESCALERO               90  55  88  56  87 /  30  20  20  20  20
TIMBERON                85  55  83  56  84 /  20  30  20  20  20
WINSTON                 89  56  91  57  90 /   0  10  10  10  10
HILLSBORO               95  65  95  65  94 /   0  10  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               98  68  96  69  99 /   0  10  10  10  10
LAKE ROBERTS            92  58  91  59  90 /   0  10  10  10  10
HURLEY                  96  63  96  63  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLIFF                  101  52  99  56  99 /   0  10  10  10  10
MULE CREEK              97  48  97  48  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
FAYWOOD                 94  63  95  63  96 /   0  10  10  10  10
ANIMAS                  99  68 100  69 100 /   0  10  10  10  10
HACHITA                100  68  99  69 101 /   0  10  10  10  10
ANTELOPE WELLS         100  70 100  71 100 /   0  10  10  10  10
CLOVERDALE              94  66  97  66  94 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NMZ110.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN
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