532
FXUS65 KABQ 061748 AAC
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1148 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

A cold front swept into New Mexico last night, and temperatures
will be a few to several degrees cooler today. Otherwise it will
be windy and dry again, not only today, but also into Tuesday and
Wednesday. High fire danger will persist through this time with
the potential for rapid fire spread. Temperatures will try to
rebound some on Tuesday, but will quickly fall a few degrees again
on Wednesday as another cold front passes through. As the work
week comes to a close Thursday and Friday, moisture will start to
seep back into parts of New Mexico from the east, and this could
lead to isolated to scattered thunderstorms returning to the
forecast, mainly in north central to northeastern areas of New
Mexico. Fortunately, less wind is forecast, hopefully reducing the
fire danger. The moisture could hang around into the weekend when
perhaps even more showers and thunderstorms will be possible,
primarily over the same north central to northeastern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

Very strong west wind gusts from 55-65 mph will continue through
much of the morning over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and around
Clines Corners as the polar jetstream continues to move over the
forecast area. The strong winds will mix down to lower elevations
from mid morning through early evening with wind gusts from 40-55
mph along and east of the central chain, and from 35-50 mph farther
west. Winds will weaken and eventually decouple at lower elevations
tonight, except along the east slopes of the central mountain chain
where they will remain gusty. The polar jetstream will shift a
little to the north on Tuesday over the CO/NM border enabling
another day of strong winds with peak gusts from 40-60 mph possible
along and north of I-40, and from 35-45 mph further south.
Humidities will bottom out in the single digits in most lower
elevations locations today, then over more of the forecast area on
Tuesday, resulting in widespread critical fire weather conditions
both days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

The upper low over eastern MT will drop into the plains farther
to the southeast Tuesday night, and a shortwave trough will close
in on the Four Corners by dawn Wednesday. This will keep the flow
aloft quite strong over NM (35 to 45 kt at 700 mb), having backed
just slightly from a due westerly direction. The shortwave will
push toward the southern high plains during the day Wednesday, and
the flow aloft will actually reduce as it veers maybe 10 to 30
degrees. This will initiate some modest cold air advection as the
thermal trough aloft crosses. It will still be breezy to windy
over much of the CWA, but a notable reduction in speeds is
forecast for many zones Wednesday afternoon.

It still looks as though a welcome pattern shift will be in order
for the remainder of the week, as a vort lobe from the earlier MT
low will have separated and cut-off just east of the Great Basin.
The relatively weak gradient with this feature will reduce wind
speeds aloft, and meanwhile at the surface, high pressure will be
sliding southward down the Great Plains and nudging into eastern
NM by late Thursday. While moisture advection will be quite
subdued with this boundary, it will still be a notable improvement
to humidity which could hopefully suppress fire danger somewhat.
Forecast models are still enthused about showers and storms
developing Thursday through the weekend, generally being
concentrated over north central to northeastern NM. With the
dewpoints struggling to even reach the upper 30s Thursday and
Friday, would think any precipitation from shower and storm
activity would face rapid evaporation beneath cloud bases,
limiting rain totals. A second frontal push by this weekend could
boost measurable rain chances more over eastern (and mainly
northeastern zones) with higher boundary layer dewpoints arriving.
Temperatures would tend to hover about 5 to 12 degrees below
normal Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Gusty
west to northwest wind gusts to 45 kts will be continue through
around sunset along and east of the central mtn chain. It won`t be
as windy in central and western areas, but gusts to 35 kts will
still be common throughout the afternoon. Patchy blowing dust may
reduce visibility at times, with the highest confidence at
terminals in eastern NM. Winds diminish briefly overnight,
creating some LLWS along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
mtns from around 06Z through 15Z tomorrow morning. Winds begin to
strengthen and spread to the lower elevations late tomorrow
morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 318 AM MDT Mon May 6 2024

...FIRE GROWING PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A persistent fire growing pattern that developed Sunday will
continue through Wednesday as a broad longwave trough persists over
the western US keeping the flow aloft dry and strong. Critical fire
weather conditions are forecast areawide today and Tuesday as wind
gusts vary around 40-60 mph both days. The strongest winds will
favor the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and eastern plains today, then
along the CO border and southeastward to east central areas on
Tuesday. The most extreme fire weather conditions today are forecast
over eastern areas where some locations will feel over 5 hours of
single digit humidities. On Tuesday, extreme fire weather conditions
will become more widespread as most lower elevation locations east
of the continental divide experience 5-10 hours of single digit
humidities. On Wednesday, winds are forecast to weaken some with
the strongest gusts favoring the central mountain chain eastward
where widespread critical fire weather conditions will persist.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  34  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  57  24  66  27 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  57  30  68  31 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  62  30  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  58  32  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  64  30  72  32 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  62  33  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  67  40  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  62  36  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  74  31  77  33 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  76  45  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  51  25  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  58  38  68  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  58  37  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  52  35  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  49  27  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  50  25  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  58  27  68  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  57  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  66  36  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  60  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  64  35  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  69  45  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  70  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  72  40  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  70  42  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  73  38  83  43 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  70  41  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  72  38  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  71  42  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  72  39  81  41 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  65  44  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  70  42  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  80  44  87  49 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  41  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  64  40  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  65  35  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  66  32  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  62  35  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  66  38  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  67  38  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  75  45  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  67  43  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  61  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  64  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  64  35  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  62  37  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  72  39  79  38 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  67  40  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  75  41  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  70  39  79  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  77  41  85  46 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  82  43  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  77  41  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  87  49  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  77  44  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  77  42  81  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106-
109-120>126.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ101-
104>106-109-120>126.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ212>216-221>223-
227>237.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ104-122>126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...16