Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222019
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

THE MODELS ALL AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF OF THIS WAS OVER
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH. THE MODELS SHOW
THE LIFT WITH THIS WAVE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS OUR CWA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEY ALSO ALL SHOW SOMETHING DIFFERENT FOR QPF
WITH THE EC PRETTY MUCH DRY. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK SOME AND THEY
MAY HAVE TO BE TRIMMMED BACK EVEN MORE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CLOUD UP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR SATURDAY. THEN WHEN THE MAIN ENERGY COMES OUT SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. THE MODELS SHOW THAT NOT MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE
ACROSS THE CWA UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG WITH BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. THUS...HAVE IN CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION ON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA.  SUNDAY
WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE 60S.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS CWA. THIS FLOW...ALONG WITH SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THUS THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR PCPN IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD. THAT SAID...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. JUST BEYOND THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING COOL...BUT DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST WEEKEND IN MAY AS A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS
FOR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 9-15Z SATURDAY. SOME MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THE TERMINALS OF KPIR/KMBG COULD SEE IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITIES. FOR THE CURRENT TAFS...HAVE
DECIDED TO INCLUDE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD


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