Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 150000 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
700 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. ONE WEAK S/W IS
TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION NOW WITH LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR FROM
BROOKINGS TO HURON. WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT ONLY SPRINKLES AT BEST. A STRONGER S/W...CURRENTLY
ENTERING NORTHERN MONTANA WILL CROSS THE REGION BY 6Z TONIGHT.
THIS S/W WILL CAUSE DECENT MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA WHERE SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SHOWERS. WITH THE MAJOR OF
THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ABOVE 850 MB...EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ONE MORE COOL DAY
ON MONDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE 60S...OR TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. WAA DEVELOPS LATE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NORMAL ON TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE PLAINS WED AND THU
BEFORE THE FLOW FLATTENS TO NEAR ZONAL ON FRIDAY. STILL THIS MEANS
THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. AS A SFC
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT
WITH LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME REGARDING JUST
HOW MUCH PRECIP THERE MAY BE AND WHEN IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
STUCK WITH ALLBLEND FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. BY SAT NIGHT
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS AGAIN.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WEST-EAST ORIENTED BANDED
PRECIPITATION ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING ON THE PVA OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA AS WELL AS ENHANCED LIFT UNDER
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110+ KNOT 250HPA JET STREAK OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STARTED KATY OFF WITH VCSH AND WILL GO FROM
THERE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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