Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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611
FXUS63 KABR 220537 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1137 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 808 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

There are thunderstorms rolling across the northern plains this
evening. The cause appears to be a combination of lift within the
left front entrance region of a 110 knot upper level jet with
steep mid-level lapse rates, as much as 500j/kg mucape and over 55
knots of deep layer effective bulk shear. One of these convective
blobs generated a 55 mph gust in Corson County. Updated the
forecast to expand pops overnight and introduce thunder mention.
No changes planned to low temperatures at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A couple short wave troughs moving over the region along with a
surface cold front dropping south on Wednesday will bring an
increase in clouds along with some chances of light
rain/sprinkles later tonight and Wednesday. Made only some small
adjustments to pops through Wednesday afternoon. It will be a mild
night across the region with lows in the mid 30s to the lower
40s. Wednesday will remain above normal as the caa kicks in. Mid
40s to mid 50s still are expected across the region as winds
become northwest and increase.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Main issue in the extended continues to be the storm system which
will slide east across the Plains Thursday through Friday. Latest
round of model guidance continues to keep the brunt of the system
south of the area, with the highest snow accums across the southern
third of SD and into northern NE and over IA. Although, this storm
does appear to be far enough north to give southern parts of the CWA
at least some light snow accums. Will continue to monitor model
trends for any northward push. There will be some gusty winds with
this system, so any snow that falls over southern areas may be blown
around and reduce visibility at times.

After that system departs, things look mostly dry through the
weekend, but will be watching some weak shortwave energy dropping
southeast through the region on Sunday. This could bring a batch of
light snow through the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

The last of the current batch of showers and thunderstorms appear
to be heading for the KATY terminal, and should be through there
within the next couple of hours. Short-range model guidance still
believes there could be some additional elevated shower and
thunderstorm development over the forecast area between now and
about 15Z Wednesday. Will continue to monitor. Otherwise, VFR
flying weather is expected through about mid-day on Wednesday
before a strong cold front surges south through the cwa and
sub-vfr cold air stratus clouds move in from the north. There
could be some cold rain and/or a few flakes of snow accompanying
this push of low level stratus clouds late Wednesday afternoon
through late Wednesday evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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