Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231729 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Cloud cover continues to drift down from the north across the far
eastern CWA. Have adjusted sky grids accordingly. Otherwise, the
current forecast is on track at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

High pressure over the region today will keep conditions dry with
pleasant temperatures for eastern areas. Fairly toasty 850mb temps
still suggest some rather warm highs today over central SD. Also
watching an area of lower clouds sliding south along the Red River
valley which could affect the eastern CWA later this morning.

The surface high slides east on Monday with increasing southerly
winds. A hot air mass builds back into the region and temperatures
will respond by readings climbing back into the 90s to around 100
degrees from the James valley and points west. Hot temperatures will
continue into Tuesday and have increased highs a couple degrees
above SuperBlend. Favorable setup in place and agreed upon fairly
well by models. Synoptic pattern features a surface low just
southwest of the area with impressive thermal ridge over the region.
Breezy southwest winds ahead of the surface trough as well.

As for precipitation, there may be some low-level jet activity late
tonight into early Monday morning across western SD, which may bleed
into the western CWA. Left in slight chances for this. Better bet
for more widespread showers and storms arrives Tuesday afternoon as
a sharp frontal boundary moves into the region. Instability
increases as well, which should set the stage for strong to perhaps
severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Strong/hot ridge aloft is expected to persist across the south
central and southwest conus through the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, energy will continue to move east along the US/Canada
border. One such decent system will push a front into the forecast
area early in the period. This system could bring some rain to the
area before shifting off to the south by mid week. After that the
mid level ridge is expected to build strongly over the western
conus, with a warm/capping EML expected to advect east into the
plains.  This suggests that rain chances are pretty low for the
latter part of the forecast. Temperatures should be right around
normal to start the period, but then will trend above normal for the
last half of the long term.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

An area of clouds will continue to stream southward over the
eastern portion of the CWA. These clouds may lower to MVFR levels
at times through early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail across the area through midday Monday.




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